Blue Line Futures Research 6.25.25

MORNING EXPRESS: E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 6146.25, up 69.25
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 22,412.75, up 339.25

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures closed within 2% of a record high. That said, the QQQ ETF is on the one-inch line of its record, set on February 19th. Better-than-expected PMIs on Monday, semiconductor tailwinds, and the Iran-Israel ceasefire have all been a tailwind from Monday’s intraday low. Yesterday’s tape was certainly interesting, and we have often seen some give-back intraday after such a strong overnight. Although this may have been the case on Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish prepared speech for his Congressional Testimony, he hinted at flexibility during his questioning. The CME’s FedWatch Tool only shows a 20.7% probability of a 25bps cut at the July meeting, up from 12.5% one week ago when the Chair was direct and spoke of being cautious and patient in the timing of a policy adjustment at his FOMC press conference. He testifies before Congress again today, beginning at 9:00 am CT.

Build Permits are due at 7:30 am CT, New Home Sales at 9:00 am CT, and a 5-year Note auction at noon CT.

Price action is firm ahead of the opening bell, with both the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ holding out above their Pivot and point of balance, detailed below. Some back and fill would make sense, however, a sense of animal spirits is being rendered, given the proximity to record highs. We have resistance levels detailed below with 6178.50 in the E-mini S&P not only being the February 24th high, but also the 100% extension of the range from yesterday’s early high at 2:00 am CT, in the intraday low of 6009. A move out above this level will continue to feed a gravitational pull higher with our next major three-star resistance coming in at….

ENERGY UPDATE: 

WTI Crude Oil Futures (August Futures)
Yesterday’s Settlement: 64.37, -4.14 [-6.04%]

Crude futures fell sharply once again yesterday as the conflict between Iran and Israel, in the opinion of markets, reached its conclusion. President Trump declared a ceasefire and threatened Israel if it didn’t comply, but an official truce between Iran and Israel has not been signed.

President Trump commented yesterday that China was “free to buy Iranian oil,” which aided in the sell-off. Markets took this as a sign that tighter sanctions on Iran’s crude oil exports would not be imposed, alongside general confusion, as Iranian oil has been sanctioned for years.

Shortly after crude’s settlement, the NYT and CNN reported that the majority of Iran’s nuclear enrichment capabilities had not been destroyed in US strikes. This caused a slight bump to crude futures through the latter hours of the US session.

President Trump and his team denied these reports, insisting Iran’s nuclear program is “completely destroyed”.

Today, +0.43 [+0.67%] to 64.80

The macro environment is trading mixed, with the Dollar stronger, equities higher / flat, and treasuries nearly unchanged. The commodity complex is generally weaker on the day.

The stories surrounding Iran’s nuclear program, which may not have been “completely destroyed,” are buoying CL prices alongside another bullish API report.

Data Releases:

Last night’s API release was as follows [thousand bbls]:

Crude: -4,280
Gasoline: +764
Distillates: -1,030
Estimates for today’s EIA report are as follows [thousand bbls]:

Crude: -1,100 estimate
Gasoline: +500 estimate
Distillates: +1,000 estimate
Refinery Utilization: +0.70% estimate

With the API trending bullish, traders will be on the lookout for another bullish EIA report. Last week’s EIA figures showed a sharp drawdown in Crude inventories.
Technical Analysis:

Our intraday support level of 64.23*** held firm yesterday. We’re hoping this level becomes a tradeable bottom and is our intraday support point once again today. Prices have stabilized above our longer term pivot pocket of 63.82-64.23***

If the 64.23 level holds, a trading range between 64.23 – 66.47 is developing and actionable. If our longer-term pivot pocket breaks, our next support zone is close and should hold. In our view, risk is skewed to the upside.

For intraday trading, our pivot and point of balance is set at….CTA: Use this CTA for Each SectionEnjoyed the report? Unlock full technical breakdowns and our daily take on crude, metals, livestock, grains, and equities—sign up through the portal today and don’t miss a move.

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Originally Posted June 25, 2025