Opinions For Imminent Forecast Contract Expirations: June 25, 2025

Initial Unemployment Claims

The “Yes/No” combo at 220k and 260k for initial unemployment claims has worked every week in the past two months and I think tomorrow’s figure will remain within those parameters. The labor market is softening at the margins, but I don’t expect a jump above 260k because that is a level signaling meaningful stress. It is a point we haven’t exceeded since October 2021, almost four years ago. That time was characterized by fragile employment conditions as the economy was recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, a weaker period relative to today’s state of healthy staffing. This Thursday’s median estimate is at 245k and of the 34 forecasters surveyed by Reuters, projections range from a minimum of 235k to a maximum of 252k. I’m in the under camp for this specific print, with an expectation of 242k. Furthermore, the slow hiring rate evidenced in payroll and job openings data doesn’t support a plunge in filings down to the 220k territory and I believe that this combination is undervalued at a total price of $1.80, with the max loss being $0.80. Finally, I also like the “No” at 270k, which is going for $0.96.

Sure Shot “No” Recession

The US Economy will not enter a technical recession by the end of the first quarter of 2025 because there’s 0 chance that the fourth quarter of 2024’s 2.4% growth rate will be revised into negative territory. That’s what’s required for “Team No” to lose here. The “No” answer here at $0.96 is undervalued and is a sure shot.

“Yeses” On Some New Energy Contracts

A simple trend analysis that folks can do easily on our IBKR ForecastTrader dashboard can help inform traders on indicators that they may not be familiar with. The recently introduced national energy data illustrate that the results in the 21^st century have never failed to exceed the thresholds of IBKR predictive contracts as described below. To that end, I like the “Yes” answers on all of the levels seen across three figures available below.

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Home Run Opportunities Too

With these recently launched energy contracts, which are also available with thresholds for specific states such as Texas, New York and California, there are some undervalued “Yes” opportunities at much higher levels. Check out these “Yeses” below, which are certainly not sure shots but offer very favorable risk-reward profiles in my opinion. Folks, these four “Yes” answers cost a total of $0.15 and would pay out $4.00 if all are correct. But you just need one to earn a strong return of $1.00. I like the odds here. 

Source for Images: ForecastEx

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of June 25, 2025.

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