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Posted April 2, 2026 at 1:04 pm
Despite the stock market being closed tomorrow on Good Friday, Treasuries will be open until noon and will likely react to the nonfarm payrolls release due at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Hiring is poised to have recovered from one of the worst months since the COVID pandemic, as February’s losses of 92k were significant. For March, however, the Interactive Brokers prediction venue expects a number near 55k, as the 30k “Yes” and the 80k “No” are going for $0.69 and $0.61. But this indicator has an elevated deviation rate and can sport some wild volatility at times, which has investors pricing the -20k “No” at $0.18 and the 130k “Yes” at $0.11. Similarly, the monthly Reuters poll of 71 forecasters stands at a median of 60k, against the backdrop of minimum and maximum projections of -25k and 125k.
The unemployment rate, released in the same report, has much more predictability since its historical deviation trends are significantly subdued on a relative basis. Indeed, the Interactive Brokers prediction market prices the 4.3% “Yes” at $0.76 and the 4.5% “No” at $0.82, landing the expectation at an unchanged 4.4%. The monthly Reuters poll of 69 forecasters sports similar possibilities, as the 4.4% median estimate is accompanied by minimum and maximum forecasts of 4.3% and 4.5%, indicating a narrow range of possible outcomes, according to projections.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of April 2, 2026.
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