Forecast Contract Opinions in Charts: June 2, 2025

Tomorrow’s expiration of forecast contracts based on economic indicators include US jobs openings as well as eurozone inflation and unemployment figures. Below, I present some high-conviction trades that I like going into tomorrow’s prints.

JOLTS Expected to Slide

Job openings likely cooled in April amidst a decelerating labor market. Higher frequency data from Indeed updated through May 23 signal softening hiring demand in April compared to March. In light of the 7.2 million job openings recorded in March and the 7.1 million consensus expectation for tomorrow’s print, I like the “No” answer for the contract asking, “Will the number of job openings exceed 7.5 million in April 2025?” for $0.75. The level offers a buffer in case of an upside surprise and is undervalued in my opinion. Other choices that I like for this indicator are the “Yes” at the 6.7 million level for $0.95 and the “Nos” at 7.7, 7.9 and 8.1 million priced at either $0.90 or $0.96. 

Euro CPI Expected To Arrive at 2%

Turning to the Eurozone’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices for May, I like the odds on the “Yes” and “No” answers at the 1.8% and 2.2% thresholds, which cost $0.88 and $0.76, or a total of $1.64. Investors would receive $2.00 back on a figure as low as 1.9% or as high as 2.2%. Economist expectations are at 2% for tomorrow morning’s release, while the number was 2.2% for the month prior. These thresholds offer some wiggle room if the publication falls short or exceeds estimates. Historically, the annualized eurozone CPI rarely misses projections by two tenths of a percent or 0.2%, and that’s what would be required for this trade to lose money to the downside. To the upside, a beat of 0.3% would be required to lose money. Finally, I also like the “Yes” answer at 1.7% for $0.92 and the “Nos” at 2.3%, 2.4%, 2.6% and 2.7%, which range from $0.79 to $0.88.

Euro Unemployment Steady or Higher

Recent economic data prints including flash PMIs point to slowing labor conditions in the eurozone. Meanwhile, an unemployment rate drop amounting to 0.2% from the current low level is improbable, especially in consideration of lighter hiring. The median estimate for tomorrow’s figure is 6.2%, which would be unchanged from March. I think the bias is to the upside here so I like buying the “Yes” answer at the 6% threshold for $0.88. If the figure surprises to the downside but lands at 6.1%, this trade is still profitable.

Source for Images: ForecastEx

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of June 2, 2025. Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred “Yes” and “No” answers throughout different thresholds.

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