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Posted October 8, 2026 at 1:24 pm
Tomorrow’s Jobs Friday event belongs to Canada after the US released its labor report last week, breaking from a more typical pattern of the countries issuing their data simultaneously. Economists expect unemployment to increase slightly, hitting only 6.5%, which is consistent with a healthy labor cycle and the same level as in January. Additionally, despite the projected lift, it would still be lower than the 6.7% from February and March, the 6.9% from April and the 6.6% from May. Meanwhile, all 17 forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll predict either 6.4% or 6.5%, a narrow range of anticipated results. And in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets, this indicator has been gaining steam from a volume, open interest and bid-size perspective, as market-makers and liquidity providers have recently increased their participations, raising the likelihood of large, price-sensitive limit orders being filled on both the “Yes” and “No” sides. Against this backdrop, the “Yeses” at 6.2%, 6.4% and 6.6% are going for $0.92, $0.56 and $0.15.
Pain at the pump, elevated inflation, lofty interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty are together likely to produce another weak consumer sentiment print tomorrow morning. September’s 48.1, near record lows, is expected to decline to 47.8 in the preliminary update, according to the monthly Reuters poll consisting of 38 forecasters. The minimum and maximum projections stand at 44.5 and 49, meanwhile. In the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market though, the indicator settles upon the release of the final statistic, 15 days from today, and the “Yeses” contracts at 44, 46, 48, 50 and 52 are going for $0.93, $0.73, $0.62, $0.37 and $0.06. Typically, the flash and revised results are in the same ballpark, usually within plus or minus 1.
Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Oct. 8, 2026.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
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Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC, as well as other CFTC-registered DCMs, including Kalshi and CME. For more information, see ibkr.com/realfex Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
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