Market has macro matters on its mind

Briefing.com Summary:

*The equity futures market is tilted lower, weighed down by an uncertainty trade.

*The Personal Income and Spending and Q4 GDP reports contained some disappointing inflation news.

*It is possible that the Supreme Court will issue its ruling today on the IEEPA tariffs.

There was another batch of earnings reports after yesterday’s close and before today’s open, but the fact of the matter is that the market is fixated on macro developments today.

Some are known, like the personal income and spending and Q4 data, while others are unknown, like the Supreme Court ruling on the IEEPA tariffs and the specter of military action against Iran.

We should know at 10:00 a.m. ET if the Supreme Court is going to release its ruling on the IEEPA tariffs; meanwhile, a military strike against Iran hangs in the balance. President Trump told reporters that Iran has a maximum of 15 days to make a deal to avoid bad things from happening.

Currently, the S&P 500 futures are down 23 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 123 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 126 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value.

This negative disposition will be attributed in large part to an uncertainty trade, yet it also relates in part to this morning’s economic data that was highlighted by ongoing inflation pressures.

Personal income increased 0.3% month-over-month in December, as expected, following an upwardly revised 0.4% increase (from 0.3%) in November. Personal spending was up 0.4% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.2%) following a downwardly revised 0.4% increase (from 0.5%) in November. The PCE Price Index jumped 0.4% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%), while the core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, also rose 0.4% month-over-month.

On a year-over-year basis, the PCE Price Index increased 2.9%, versus 2.8% in November, and the core PCE Price Index increased 3.0%, versus 2.8% in November.

The key takeaway from the report, other than the fact that spending outpaced income in December, is that the core PCE Price Index sported a 3-handle on a year-over-year basis. This is a key inflation gauge for the Fed, and it doesn’t hold the key to a near-term rate cut.

The Advance Q4 GDP report also had a mixed tone. Overall growth was disappointing, with real GDP increasing at an annual rate of 1.4% (Briefing.com consensus: 3.0%) on the heels of a 4.4% increase in the third quarter. The GDP Price Deflator increased 3.6% (Briefing.com consensus: 3.3%) versus 3.8% in the third quarter.

The key takeaway from the report was the combination of weak growth and stubbornly high inflation in the fourth quarter, both of which run afoul of a market narrative that has been concentrated on stronger growth and lower inflation.

A placating factor for the Q4 growth disappointment, though, has been the Q4 earnings growth. The blended earnings growth rate sits today at a strong 13.6%, according to FactSet, which is nearly double the growth rate expected at the end of September.

The latter point notwithstanding, the futures market took a lower turn after the data, as it added to the uncertainty of when the Fed might next cut rates. The 2-yr note yield is unchanged at 3.47%. The 10-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.07%.

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Originally Posted February 20, 2026 – Market has macro matters on its mind