Weak Data Bolster Fed Rate Cut Optimism: April 29, 2025

Investors are stepping up to the plate and engaging in some buying despite lackluster corporate earnings reports that included several companies canceling forward guidance due to elevated uncertainty regarding cross-border commerce. Meanwhile, tensions flared as the White House reflected its disappointment concerning Amazon.com’s plan to reflect the added costs from tariffs onto the actual packaged goods themselves. But stocks are up for the sixth day in a row, and today’s bullishness is motivated by softening economic data that are bolstering the case for an imminent Fed cut. Indeed, this morning’s updates were awful, missing expectations by a mile and then some. Consumer confidence fell for a fifth consecutive month to its lowest level since the depths of the pandemic in 2020, job openings dropped to the weakest point in six months and the trade deficit ballooned to a new monthly record as folks rushed to acquire products prior to the implementation of levies. Still, markets are optimistic today as traders grab equities, Treasuries, greenback futures, bitcoins and forecast contracts while trimming exposures to commodities and volatility protection.

Shoppers’ Moods Continue to Plunge

Consumer confidence plunged to its lowest level since August 2020 as anxiety regarding elevated prices, heavy interest rates, job security and market volatility fostered rising pessimism. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index declined to 86 this month, missing the 87.5 projection and arriving beneath March’s 93.9. While current conditions held in there, the outlook for the future severely weighed on the print. The Present Situation and Expectations sub-indices dropped 0.9 and 12.5 points to 133.5 and 54.4, as the latter gauge fell to its weakest result since October of 2011.

Job Openings Hit Six-Month Low

For-hire signs fell to a six-month low in March amidst broad-based sectoral weakness. Worker vacancies slipped to 7.192 million, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The result missed the median estimate of 7.50 million and sank from the preceding period’s 7.48 million. It marked the second consecutive monthly drop. Quits rose slightly, however, from 3.25 million to 3.332 million.

Trade Deficit Climbs

The trade deficit among goods fell to $161.99 billion for the month of March, the largest gap on record as folks rushed to import products ahead of Trump tariffs. The result trounced expectations calling for a reduction to $146 billion after February’s figure came in at $147.85 billion.

Investors Hang Hopes on the Fed

Markets are climbing and every major domestic equity benchmark is in the green. The Dow Jones Industrial, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 indices are higher by 0.5%, 0.2%, 0.2% and 0.1%. All sectors are participating minus energy and consumer discretionary, which are down 0.5% and 0.4%. Real estate, materials and financials are leading the charge, gaining 0.5%, 0.5% and 0.4% on the session. Treasuries and the greenback are also catching bids with the 2- and 10-year Treasury maturities changing hands at 3.66% and 4.18%, 3 basis points (bps) lighter across both instruments. The Dollar Index is up 21 bps as the US currency appreciates against most of its major counterparts, including the euro, pound sterling, franc, yen, loonie and Aussie tender, but it is depreciating relative to the yuan. Commodities are being sold on weaker economic prospects and light safe haven demand, with crude oil, gold, lumber, copper and silver falling 2%, 1.1%, 0.6%, 0.3% and 0.1%.  WTI crude oil is trading at $60.55 per barrel on a challenging consumption outlook amidst elevated uncertainty.

Tomorrow Will Be Pivotal for Markets

Tomorrow’s data will be pivotal as both the European Union and the United States release their preliminary reads of first-quarter GDP. Forecasters expect a few tenths of a percent above the 0 mark for the regions, 0.2% on the east side of the Atlantic and 0.4% on the west side. Meanwhile, investors are eager to analyze the prints in order to gauge the impacts of Trump tariffs and the resulting uncertainty on economic growth as well as corporate earnings prospects. But the calendar is much broader; folks will also get a look at April hiring from ADP, wage pressures from the BLS’s Employment Cost Index, consumer spending trends as well as inflationary forces from the Census Bureau’s Personal Income and Outlays report and more. Turning back to GDP, however, today’s wider trade deficit reading raises the chances of a negative figure for the US, with our prediction market pointing to a 41% probability of a number at or below 0.

International Roundup

Liberal Party Wins Canada’s Top Position

Liberal Party candidate Mark Carney won the prime minister race yesterday with a platform that focuses on investing in new trade corridors, increasing defense spending, building rental apartments and growing the country’s technology industry. Carney has proposed a $150 billion increase in spending to fund those initiatives, which would increase the annual deficit from 1.47% of gross domestic product (GDP) to 1.96%.

Singapore’s Inflation Eases

The Singapore Domestic Supply Price Index climbed 3.9% year over year (y/y) last month, easing from the 5.5% rate in February. The machinery and transportation equipment component led the advance, soaring 15.6% y/y while the animal and vegetable oils category gained 7.1% and the food and live animals group increased 5.7%. Chemicals and chemical products along with the manufactured goods groups were the only decliners with prices falling 4.4% and 0.8%, respectively. While efforts to contain inflation were aided by a 4% decline in costs for imports compared to February’s 3.4% drop, charges for exports also weakened. After declining 3.5% in February, prices last month dropped 5.1%.