Wall Street Rebounds on Optimism About a Faster Warsh Confirmation, AI, Iran War: April 24, 2026

Wall Street is rebounding from yesterday’s losses as investors cheer news regarding earnings, geopolitical issues and monetary policy. Intel’s blockbuster quarterly report, furthermore, is extending the historic rally in semiconductors and strengthening confidence that the artificial intelligence revolution has a lot more room to run. Meanwhile, reports of an extended ceasefire between Lebanon and Isreal paired with Iran’s Foreign Ministry visiting Pakistan today to discuss the Middle East war are lifting optimism for the US and the Persian nation to strike a peace agreement, bolstering investor sentiment further by causing WTI crude to drop to $92.68 per barrel and sending the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indices to fresh records. An intraday announcement that the DOJ has closed its investigation of Fed Chair Powell was another tailwind because it boosted the odds of a faster confirmation for presumed successor Kevin Warsh, which sank the dollar and dropped the yield curve in bull-steepening fashion led by the short-end, as fixed-income watchers currently believe that the new leader will adopt an increasingly dovish perspective on rates. The Dow Industrial isn’t participating, however, as cyclical equities are preventing it from advancing alongside the index’s domestic peers. Non-energy commodities are appreciating, prediction markets are experiencing engagement, cryptocurrencies are slightly lower and volatility protection instruments are being ditched in light of the risk-on winds.

Inflation Fighting Warsh is a Dove? 

Wall Street anticipates that Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh will adopt a dovish position on the committee as yields plunged immediately following the news of the dropped Department of Justice (DoJ) investigation into current head Jerome Powell. But some hesitation when analyzing that notion is appropriate because the former governor of the central bank has historically been labeled a hawk in light of his persistent concerns of inflation spiraling out of control. During the Senate hearing this week, Warsh essentially blamed the policy errors of the institution for contributing to the price pressures that have exceeded the organization’s target for about five years and counting since the pandemic’s aftermath. Is it reasonable to believe that with accelerating cost forces driven mainly by soaring crude oil as well as tariff pass throughs and robust consumer demand a loosening of financial conditions is warranted as leadership transitions? I’m of the view that a repricing of the Treasury curve is imminent as borrowing costs appear too cheap at this juncture and I don’t think keeping rates steady and promoting a smaller balance sheet will promote much more appreciation from here, although peace in the Middle East would.

International Roundup

Retail Sales Growth Slows Marginally in Canada

Retail sales in Canada during March were up 0.6% month over month (m/m), according to a preliminary release from Statistics Canada. The pace eased slightly from the 0.7% m/m growth in February. The final print for February, furthermore, missed the economist consensus estimate for a 0.9% jump following January’s 1.2% hike. Core retail sales growth, at 0.5%, also underperformed with economists anticipating a 0.8% m/m expansion. In January, core sales were up 1% m/m. Within the broader m/m gauge, purchases strengthened in seven of nine subsectors. During February, general merchandise retailers, the clothing and clothing accessories retailers and the motor vehicle and parts dealers categories led with ascents of 1.2%, 1.1% and 1%. The building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers group and retailers of furniture, electronics and appliances experienced declines of 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively.

UK Retail Sales Reverse from Monthly Decline

After sinking 0.6% m/m in February, UK retail sales climbed 0.7% last month, but the increase was largely due to higher gasoline prices with spending at filling stations climbing 6.1%, according to the Office for National Statistics. Indeed, core retail sales, which exclude fuel and automobiles, climbed only 0.2% m/m. While UK shoppers cut food spending by 0.8%, they dished out more for clothing. Computer and telecoms stores, and non-store retailers also saw increased activity driven by new product launches. Relative to the year-ago period, the value of transactions climbed 1.7%, exceeding the economist consensus estimate of 1.3% but slowing slightly from the 1.8% y/y advance in February. The core metric, however, shows sales moving north by 0.2%, which matched the economist estimate and was a reversal from the 0.6% descent in February.

Inflation Picks Up in Japan

Inflation strengthened in Japan during March with the Consumer Price Index climbing 0.4% m/m and 1.5% y/y after February’s 0.2% decline and 1.2% annual increase. In a similar manner, the core CPI, which excludes fresh food, depicted price pressures intensifying from the 1.6% climb in February to 1.8%, which surpassed the economist consensus estimate of 1.7%. When excluding both fresh food and energy, the gauge was up 2.4% y/y, which was marginally lower than February’s 2.5% gain. It was the lowest core-core CPI result since October 2024. The global climb in energy prices triggered by the Middle East crisis was offset by Japan rolling out subsidies and price caps.

Ocean Freight Fees Rev Up Costs of Corporate Services 

Soaring ocean freight fees pushed Japan’s Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI) up 3.1 y/y in March, which exceeded both the economist consensus estimate for a 3% climb and February’s 2.7% result. Within the index’s transportation and postal activities, category, stickers for ocean freight transportation jumped 42% and international air freight followed with an 11.9% spike. When compared to the preceding month, the CSPI was 1.2% higher.