Wall Street is Poised for a Superb September: Sep. 22, 2025

Wall Street is starting this Monday on the right foot as stocks march to all-time records in what’s shaping up to be another superb September. The seasonally weak month is notorious for generating turbulence, but it bucked the trend in 2024 and it’s on track to deliver gains once again this year. Meanwhile, bullish buying activity is occurring despite the lack of any obvious catalysts; however, two consecutive quiet days on the stateside economic calendar will be followed by a full week of data releases starting tomorrow with flash PMIs and ending with this Friday’s publication of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Furthermore, rising odds of a government shutdown on October 1 are not derailing risk appetites, as traders have become conditioned to wait until the last minute before worrying about the potential impacts of such events. The stance is understandable, considering that congressional debt ceiling negotiations typically go down to the wire prior to a deal being reached. In another development, adding a $100k fee for H-1B visas will weigh on labor supply, although that’s a slower-moving, medium-term phenomenon that isn’t influencing investment decisions in the short-run. Investors are picking up equities across all major benchmarks, which are all advancing even as just 2 out of 11 sectors, technology and communication services, are appreciating on the session. Volatility protection instruments, forecast contracts and the gold, silver and lumber commodities are additionally catching bids. Conversely, Bitcoin and Ethereum are descending sharply as the overall cryptocurrency complex faces sizeable losses. Energy commodities and copper are sinking as well but Treasuries and the greenback are nearly flat.

A Pivotal Week for Markets and Economists

The next few days will provide significant clues on the health of the economic cycle and whether the Fed will have space to continue walking down the monetary policy stairs. Details on consumer spending, labor markets, price pressures and business investment will be found in PMIs, unemployment claims, durable goods and personal income & outlays. Economists will analyze these statistics to identify consumption trends, risks of joblessness, the pace of overall expansion and the momentum of future corporate earnings. The ideal mix of results would signal buoyant household shopping, solid employment conditions, robust capital expenditures and subdued cost forces. As for the real estate transaction numbers for new and residential properties out on Wednesday and Thursday, figures are expected to remain weak despite growing inventories, as elevated valuations and heavy mortgage rates weigh on affordability while immigration restrictiveness reduces the pool of prospective buyers.

International Roundup

China Maintains Key Interest Rates

China’s policymakers agreed yesterday to hold the country’s key interest rate, marking the fourth-consecutive month of no changes despite slowing retail sales, weakening exports and decelerating industrial production. The People’s Bank of China will continue its 3% and 3.5% prime rates for one- and five-year loans that it provides to its best customers. The decisions matched the economist consensus estimates. Export growth last month weakened to 4.4%, sales were up only 3.4% and industrial production expanded only 5.2%. The rate decisions, however, appear to be based on optimism that the country’s rallying stock market will help shore up the languishing economy.

Hong Kong Price Pressures Were Stable Last Month

Hong Kong’s Consumer Price Index climbed 0.10% month over month (m/m) and 1.1% year over year (y/y) in August compared to 0.6% and 1.1% in July, according to the Census and Statistics Department. The y/y metric matched the economist consensus estimate.

Wholesale Prices Higher than Expected in Canada

Wholesale price increases in Canada slowed from July’s 0.7% m/m rate to 0.5% last month, according to the Industrial Producer Price Index (IPPI), but the metric surpassed the 0.2% economist consensus estimate. Relative to August 2024, the gauge was up 4%, accelerating from the 2.6% y/y hike in July.

Meanwhile, the country’s Raw Materials Price Index depicted m/m deflation at 0.6% following July’s positive 0.3% result. Economists anticipated that the measurement would climb 1.2% in August. The y/y print was up 3.2% compared to 0.7% in the preceding month.

Regarding wholesale prices, the meat, fish and dairy category was up 1.9% m/m with cattle supply resulting from droughts causing beef and veal to climb 5.2%, the largest hike since June 2024. Chicken followed, climbing 2.1%, a result of bird flu outbreaks in poultry exporting countries. Primary non-ferrous metal products became 1% more expensive with unwrought gold, silver, platinum and their alloy stickers 0.7% higher. Conversely, a 3.9% drop in crude oil costs caused the energy and petroleum products groups to sink 1.3% m/m.

Within the RMPI, crude energy products fell 3.7% in August with increased output from OPEC+ pushing down prices. Metal ores, concentrates and scrap were up 2%, but crop products declined 1.7%. With the latter category, canola descended 6.4% with Chinese tariffs dinging the product’s demand outlook.

Shoppers In Europe Become More Pessimistic

The European Union’s Consumer Confidence Indicator sank 0.6 percentage points to -14.9 in August, marginally worse than the economist consensus estimate of -15. Survey respondents’ expectations for the labor market climbed 0.6 points to 98.1, but the economic sentiment gauge sank 0.3 percentage points to 94.9. The long-term average for the two metrics is 100.