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Posted June 4, 2026 at 12:09 pm
Tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls report is expected to reflect ongoing cyclical strength amidst subdued levels of joblessness. Participants in the Interactive Brokers prediction market are pointing to a number around 98k as the most likely May figure, as the “No” contracts at the 50k, 100k and 150k thresholds are going for $0.29, $0.51 and $0.85. The anticipated statistic would offer a modest slowdown from April’s 115k, and the path to a sizeable beat doesn’t seem to be in the cards when examining the range of the economist consensus estimates. Indeed, the 85k median prediction across the 70 forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll carries minimum and maximum projections of 50k and 125k. Still, this indicator sustains an elevated deviation rate, meaning that its historical tendencies include the potential to surprise significantly.
The unemployment rate published in the same report is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%, as the “Yeses” at 4.2% and 4.3% are going for $0.70 and $0.33 within the Interactive Brokers prediction market. Above 4.4%, there’s just a 6% chance of a result exceeding that level. The 70 forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll also point to a narrow range of potential outcomes, meanwhile, with 4.2% and 4.4% serving as the minimum and maximum entries.
Canada’s jobs report is also scheduled for tomorrow morning, but its unemployment rate is carries increased historical volatility than its southern neighbor. Indeed, the potential for an unexpected result closely mirrors the US payrolls print, which has posted significant surprises more often than average. The consensus estimate from a Reuters poll of 70 forecasters is 6.9%, which would be unchanged from April amidst minimum and maximum expectations of 6.8% and 7%. The Interactive Brokers prediction market is increasingly open minded regarding a potential downside miss, however, with the “Yeses” down at 6.5%, 6.6%, 6.7% and 6.8% costing $0.84, $0.76, $0.57 and $0.39. The “Yes” at 6.9% is going for just $0.21, meanwhile.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of June 4, 2026.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
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