Risk Assets Rebound On US-China Progress, Gaza Halt, New AI Deal: Oct. 13, 2025

Risk assets are rebounding sharply as softening trade tensions, easing geopolitical conditions and a new AI deal have reignited enthusiasm on Wall Street. The White House is inching closer to negotiations with Beijing after last Friday’s scare worried participants that President Trump would adopt an increasingly adversarial posture. Still, recently announced export controls on rare earths are weighing on relations, but Treasury Secretary Bessent communicated with his foreign counterparts over the weekend ahead of more talks in the next few days to try and bridge the gap of disagreement. In-person meetings are also possible because Chinese officials will be in Washington this week for the annual World Bank and IMF meetings. Another tailwind for investors is the pact stopping the war in Gaza, which included Hamas releasing prisoners. And of course, the AI train continues to pack on passengers, with Broadcom signing a multi-year agreement with OpenAI. Additionally, sentiment about the modern technology’s capabilities for sustaining the bull market is strengthening. All four major domestic equity benchmarks are advancing well above 1%, led by the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq 100 indices, which are 2.4% and 1.9% higher. Every major sector and subcomponent are rallying except for the defensive consumer staples category. Safe havens are doing great, too, as gold and silver reach fresh records; they’re now up 56% and 79% year to date; however, the cyclical items, like copper and crude oil, are especially outperforming today. Treasurys, meanwhile, are closed for Columbus Day. Forecast contracts are also catching bids, although volatility protection instruments are dropping in value due to reduced hedging demand while bitcoin is nearly flat.

Investors Gear Up for Earnings Season

The US government shutdown continues to deprive the marketplace of the critical data releases that investors are used to receiving in a timely manner; however, tomorrow’s official beginning of earnings season will offer significant information. The quarterly results and outlooks for the road ahead will carry heavier weight than usual since economic figures won’t be around to bolster or quell sentiment on Wall Street. Top of mind for shareholders will be AI developments, because the technology has been the major driver of profitability expansion and higher multiples. But economists and traders alike will additionally focus on the health of the consumer, the pace and plans for business investment, the margin effects of tariffs, rebounding M&A deal flow amongst the big banks and more. Finally, ears will be open to potential news from Washington regarding the stalemate in Congress, trade, geopolitics and who knows what else.

International Roundup

China’s Exports Hit Six-Month High

China’s export growth hit a six-month high in September, jumping 8.3% year over year (y/y) and reaching approximately $328.6 billion. The result exceeded both the economist consensus forecast of 6% and the preceding month’s 4.4% gain. In the aftermath of President Trump increasing tariffs on the country, China grew its shipments to other destinations by 14.8%, partially offsetting the 27% decline in trade with the US. The export growth comes as China struggles with excess manufacturing and other challenges, such as a glut of real estate. Also in September, imports by the world’s second-largest economy ascended 7.4% y/y, a significant increase from 1.3% in August and much stronger than the forecast of 1.5%. The trade surplus, however, fell from $102.3 billion in August to $90.45 billion. Economists expected shipments to other countries to exceed imports by $98.50 billion.