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Industrial Production Forecast Contract Opportunity: March 17, 2025

Industrial Production Forecast Contract Opportunity: March 17, 2025

Posted March 17, 2025 at 12:00 pm

Jose Torres
IBKR Macroeconomics

Folks, I like the “No” answers to the ForecastTrader Contracts asking if tomorrow’s US Industrial Production report will show that growth in February exceeded levels ranging from 0.5% to as high as 3%. The consensus forecast is only 0.2%. Furthermore, in the last three years, the average and median month-over-month figures are both below 0.1%. When excluding the negative readings through the same time period, the average and median are 0.4% and 0.3%, pointing to the “No” answers having favorable risk/return profiles. The “No” contracts range in prices from a low of $0.20 for the 0.5% threshold to $0.74 for the 3% target. If correct, the contracts would pay $1.  

IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if US production in February will grow more than 1.5% y/y
Pricing of ForecastTrader Contracts with No answer to Industrial Production exceeding various thresholds.

Source: ForecastEx

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