- Solve real problems with our hands-on interface
- Progress from basic puts and calls to advanced strategies
Interactive Options Course
Posted October 9, 2026 at 10:45 am
As of Friday morning, October 9, ForecastEx quotes have Fort Walton Beach, Florida, with an 86% chance of a wind gust of 100 mph or more from Hurricane Isaias, and a 20% chance of a gust of 140 mph or more, a speed in the EF3 tornado range.
From the live hurricane decision support page. The track and cone are from NHC’s 4 AM CDT Friday forecast, with the storm’s 7 AM position. The side panel shows Fort Walton Beach’s exceedance probability ladder.
Isaias became a major hurricane on Friday morning. At 7:20 AM CDT, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found maximum sustained winds of 120 mph (Category 3) about 240 miles south of Pensacola, with the storm moving north-northeast at 15 mph. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects landfall this evening or tonight within the Hurricane Warning area, which runs from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the Bay/Gulf County line in Florida, and its forecast track crosses the coast near Pensacola Beach.
The remaining question is how much strength Isaias will retain before reaching the coast. The storm is moving over water that is more than 2°C warmer than average and over some of the Gulf’s deepest warm waters, which can promote further intensification. Wind shear—the change in wind speed and direction with height that tilts a hurricane and disrupts its structure—is opposing strengthening. At 4 AM CDT, the NHC predicted a significant increase in shear, likely weakening Isaias somewhat before landfall, with the best forecast being a high-end Category 2. However, they also warned that if the onset of shear is delayed by about six hours, the hurricane could make landfall stronger than currently forecast.
ForecastEx’s Live Hurricane contracts ask questions of the form “Will Hurricane Isaias cause wind gusts of 100 mph or greater in Fort Walton Beach, FL?”
Yesterday’s article, Hurricane Isaias and ForecastEx’s Live Hurricane Wind Gust Contracts, ForecastEx’s Live Hurricane Wind Gust Prediction Markets, and Reask’s article explain the contracts and their applications in more detail.
Reask’s latest LiveCyc forecast, the fair-value reference for these contracts, puts the chance of a gust of 100 mph or more for Fort Walton Beach at 86%, up from 28% on Thursday morning.
Fort Walton Beach has a 55% chance of a gust of 120 mph or more, 37% of 130 mph, 20% of 140 mph, and 7% of 150 mph. A 3-second gust of 140 mph falls in the 136 to 165 mph range the National Weather Service would rate an EF3 tornado (which also uses 3-second gusts in its definition).
Fort Walton Beach is now the location most likely to record the highest wind gust overall across the Live Hurricane contracts’ pre-defined locations. Its chance of recording the peak wind stands at 66%, up from 28% on Thursday morning. This is followed by Pensacola at 25%, and Panama City Beach at 8%.
We’ll be watching how prices change through landfall tonight.
From the live hurricane decision support page. Exchange prices on the peak wind location contract since it was listed on Wednesday, and the current ladder of Yes and No prices.
New to Prediction Markets?
Open a Prediction Markets AccountThe analysis in this material is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Interactive Brokers, its affiliates, or its employees.
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx Forecast Contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
Futures, event contracts, and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. For a copy, visit our Warnings and Disclosures Page.
Event Contracts are only available to eligible clients, 21 years and older, of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd. ForecastEx Forecast Contracts on US election results are only available to eligible US residents.
Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC, as well as other CFTC-registered DCMs, including Kalshi and CME. For more information, see ibkr.com/realfex Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
This is commentary on economic, political and/or market conditions within the meaning of CFTC Regulation 1.71, and is not meant provide sufficient information upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction.
Related Articles
Join The Conversation
For specific platform feedback and suggestions, please submit it directly to our team using these instructions.
If you have an account-specific question or concern, please reach out to Client Services.
We encourage you to look through our FAQs before posting. Your question may already be covered!