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Posted December 8, 2025 at 12:41 pm
On Saturday and Sunday, December 6 and 7, ForecastEx saw trading volumes exceed 13 million contracts. The daily high temperatures across major US cities, the price of bitcoin and this Wednesday’s Fed decision were some of the themes with the greatest engagement. Interest is building on this week’s verdict on rates from the US central bank, with approximately 380k contracts open that are tied to the event. Transactions are poised to increase significantly with settlement approaching in roughly 48 hours. Indeed, growing participation as we approach expiry is a trend we’ve seen during past monetary policy meetings that I expect to continue.
The widely expected Wednesday cut from the Fed is poised to feature disagreement, however, as there are just 3% odds of having no dissenters at the meeting. Indeed, Governor Stephen Miran will likely favor a deeper reduction of 50 basis points, while others on the committee are going to point to 3% inflation as evidence that the economy is overheating and that it doesn’t need accommodation. There is an 8%, 28%, 40% and 18% probability of exactly 1, 2, 3 and 4 voting members that formally disagree with the decision.
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is still strongly favored to be nominated as the next Chair of the Fed even though his odds dropped from a record high of 90% to 76%. Trailing him are Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, Scott Bessent and Michelle Bowman, who are carrying probabilities of 9%, 5%, 5% and 4%. Approximately 20k contracts are open tied to President Trump’s decision.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 8, 2025.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx prediction market contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
Displayed outcome information is based on current market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC. Current market sentiment for ForecastEx contracts may be viewed at https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php. Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
This is commentary on economic, political and/or market conditions within the meaning of CFTC Regulation 1.71, and is not meant provide sufficient information upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction.
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