- Solve real problems with our hands-on interface
- Progress from basic puts and calls to advanced strategies
Interactive Options Course
Posted December 30, 2025 at 12:56 pm
Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh has been making a comeback in his probabilities of being nominated as the central bank’s leader in recent days rising to as high as 38% yesterday from as low as 24% last week. Warsh’s gain has trimmed National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett’s lead significantly with his chances now at 43%, while current central banking official Christopher Waller and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are at 9% and 2%, respectively. President Trump said yesterday that the announcement will arrive sometime next month while refraining from stating whether he favors either of the top two contenders. There are approximately 70k contracts open that are tied to the selection.
Yesterday’s trading action on ForecastEx featured building engagement in the Fed’s interest rate decision next month, as participants are increasingly sure that the central bank will pause with an 89% degree of certainty. Earlier in December, the chances of an unchanged benchmark in January were a lot lower at 64%.
The Singapore Overnight Rate Average (SORA) has run between 1% and 1.5% for 17 consecutive days, averaging 1.16% for the month of December amidst a 7-day mean of 1.29%. Against this backdrop the “Yes/No” combo at 1% and 1.5% appears undervalued to me at an overall cost of $1.74, featuring a maximum total loss of $0.74.
The Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index has exceeded 2.2% for four consecutive weeks and is poised to come in north of that level again tomorrow in my opinion. Activity has been firm lately and the “Yes” at $0.65 isn’t hugely undervalued, but still offers a decent opportunity since the price should be closer to $0.75.
Wall Street expects initial unemployment claims to come in 220k tomorrow and our participants are right near there. Indeed, there’s an approximate 59% chance of a number arriving north of that level and a 39% probability of a figure coming in at 220k or under.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 30, 2025.
To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders’ Academy video here
Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx forecast contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. For a copy visit our Warnings and Disclosures Page.
Displayed outcome information is based on current market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC. Current market sentiment for contracts may be viewed at ForecastEx at https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php. Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd. Forecast Contracts on US election results are only available to eligible US residents.
This is commentary on economic, political and/or market conditions within the meaning of CFTC Regulation 1.71, and is not meant provide sufficient information upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction.
Related Articles
Join The Conversation
For specific platform feedback and suggestions, please submit it directly to our team using these instructions.
If you have an account-specific question or concern, please reach out to Client Services.
We encourage you to look through our FAQs before posting. Your question may already be covered!