- Solve real problems with our hands-on interface
- Progress from basic puts and calls to advanced strategies
Interactive Options Course
Posted October 14, 2025 at 1:01 pm
The preliminary release of September’s Consumer Price Index for Spain pointed to a 0.4% month-over-month drop alongside a 2.9% year-over year increase, which landed the index value at 118.345. In consideration of the indicator’s subdued deviation rate, the final release tomorrow, which is what our forecast contracts are tied to for this specific gauge, is likely to come in at 118.3 or 118.4, while 118.2 or 118.5 would be significant surprises. For this reason, I find the risk-reward profiles of the “Nos” from 118.5 to 120.5 attractive, which are ranging in cost from $0.79 to $0.96. The “Yes” at 118 also appears safe in my opinion at $0.93.
Singapore GDP Revisions Have Been Historically Modest
Singapore’s GDP revisions have been historically modest, and today’s 2.9% preliminary growth rate offer sours prediction market participants an opportunity to buy “Yeses” below that level. Indeed, the absolute average and median adjustments since fourth quarter 2005 have been 0.6 and 0.3. Against this backdrop I find the risk-reward profiles of the “Yeses” at 1%, 1.5%, 2% and 2.5% attractive. They range from $0.96 to $0.46 in cost. The 2% and 2.5% levels are especially undervalued, in my opinion.
My September forecasts for the overall and core US CPIs are both at 3% and I think there’s very little likelihood that they will exceed 3.1% and 3.4%, which are the available thresholds above my expectations. Of the 35 forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll, none anticipate a number north of those two levels. Despite the government shutdown and these numbers not being released tomorrow, the “Nos” at 3.1% for core and 3.4% on headline are significantly undervalued at $0.75 and $0.94. Finally, this indicator also carries a subdued deviation rate, meaning that it tends to arrive near projections.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Oct. 14, 2025. Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred “Yes” and “No” answers throughout different levels.
To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders’ Academy video here
Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx forecast contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd. Forecast Contracts on US election results are only available to eligible US residents.
Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. For a copy visit our Warnings and Disclosures Page.
Displayed outcome information is based on current market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC. Current market sentiment for contracts may be viewed at ForecastEx at https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php. Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
This is commentary on economic, political and/or market conditions within the meaning of CFTC Regulation 1.71, and is not meant provide sufficient information upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction.
Related Articles
Join The Conversation
For specific platform feedback and suggestions, please submit it directly to our team using these instructions.
If you have an account-specific question or concern, please reach out to Client Services.
We encourage you to look through our FAQs before posting. Your question may already be covered!