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Posted January 23, 2026 at 12:54 pm
It’s unclear when the Supreme Court will rule on President Trump’s tariffs, but some opine that the decision can come as soon as in several weeks. Against this uncertain backdrop, in which levies were threatened towards European nations a few days ago, this specific contract has experienced notable volatility this week. Indeed, the odds of the highest national legal authority upholding the commander in chief’s duties traded as high as 38% on Sunday and Monday, Jan. 18 and 19, before dipping to a seven-day low of 26% on Tuesday, Jan. 20. Since then, the likelihood has stabilized around the middle, hovering near 31%.
Source for image: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Jan. 23, 2026.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
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