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Posted June 1, 2026 at 12:59 pm
Pain at the pump is expected to recede for the third-consecutive week in tomorrow’s publication. The preceding readings of $4.50, $4.49 and $4.48 per gallon are projected to have fallen materially according to the Interactive Brokers prediction market, which places the most likely result at $4.32. Indeed, the “Yes” at $4.30 and the “No” at $4.35 are priced at $0.78 and $0.88, indicating an elevated probability of a number landing between those two. The decline is anticipated on the back of slipping crude oil prices in light of positive headlines last week related to US-Iran peace negotiations. The drop may be short lived, however, as tensions began to flare up this Monday, June 1, with Tehran vowing to block traffic along the critical Strait of Hormuz due to disagreements about ceasefire relations pertaining to Israeli aggressions in Lebanon and Gaza.
April job openings are expected to have remained steady, as the Interactive Brokers prediction market anticipates a number around 6.85 million, while would be near the 6.866 million printed in March. Similarly, the monthly Reuters poll of 27 forecasters is anticipating a result of 6.88 million, against the backdrop of minimum and maximum projections of 6.7 million and 7.05 million. The wide range of potential outcomes is due to the indicator’s elevated deviation rate, as results have historically varied significantly from consensus estimates. Meanwhile, the “Yeses” at 6.6 million, 6.8 million, 7 million and 7.2 million are going for $0.79, $0.62, $0.29 and $0.17.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of June 1, 2026.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
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