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Posted October 28, 2025 at 1:16 pm
IBKR ForecastTrader transactions exceeded 2.1 million yesterday as election enthusiasm sparked a fresh year-to-date high in volumes. The mayoral contest in New York City, as well as gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia drew strong interest from participants. Democratic candidates are carrying commanding leads in the three matches, with odds of 85% or greater. Separately, central bank decisions have been extremely popular in recent months and tomorrow features monetary policy meetings in the US, Canada and Japan. Washington and Ottawa are largely expected to cut, but Tokyo is projected to stay on hold; it may even hike!
In the New York City race, huge volume sent Zohran Mamdani’s chances from 95% to 85% in just one day. Meanwhile, former state governor Andrew Cuomo carries a modest 12% chance of victory at the moment. There are a total of 8.574 million contracts currently open that are tied to this election, as residents of the five boroughs gear up to cast their votes next Tuesday on Nov. 4.
Democrat Mikie Sherrill’s lead has extended in the past few weeks and her odds of victory currently stand at 85%, while the Republican Party’s Jack Ciattarelli is at 16%. There are 844k open contracts linked to this race as residents of the Garden State are scheduled to cast their votes next Tuesday.
Democrat Abigail Spanberger’s commanding lead has grown in recent weeks and she’s currently at 94%, while the Republican Party’s Winsome Earle-Sears is at just 5%. There are 418k open contracts connected to this contest as Virginia residents are scheduled to choose their preferred candidate on Nov. 4
Fed Expected to Cut 25 Tomorrow
The Fed is expected to cut rates by a quarter point tomorrow with a 98% probability. The projected easing is motivated by concerns that labor conditions are decelerating. There’s also a 94% likelihood that there will be at least one dissenter that opposes the decision. As far as the precise number of voting members that formally disagree, there’s 4% odds of 0, 72% of 1, 20% of 2 and 4% of 3. Newly appointed governor Stephen Miran is likely to be alone in preferring a larger, 50 basis point reduction.
Bank of Canada Expected to Cut Too
The Bank of Canada is largely expected to cut by a quarter point as well in response to a weakening economy, with the likelihood of a reduction priced at 93%.
Bank of Japan May Hike Though
The Bank of Japan is also due with a decision tomorrow, and there’s a 90% chance the institution will leave rates steady. But there’s a 10% probability that the monetary policy authority will hike by a quarter point in response to persistent price pressures.
Source for Images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of October 28, 2025.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
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