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Posted October 30, 2025 at 1:03 pm
Forecast trading is on a roll as investors, speculators, hedgers, arbitragers and market makers dive in to place orders. Indeed, yesterday’s volumes totaled 2.874 million and we’re up to 2.139 million so far today. As transactions have been trending higher, especially as they relate to the upcoming mayoral election in NYC and the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey as well as Fed rate decisions, we are poised to mark another YTD record north of Tuesday’s 3.36 million in the next few days. I offer some opinions below tied to data points that expire tomorrow.
Tomorrow’s Baltic Dry Index reading is unlikely to exceed 2,350, 2,425 and 2,500, which would mark fresh 12-month highs compared to the July peak of 2,258. The “Nos” at the three particular levels are going for $0.66, $0.72 and $0.77, prices that I consider to be undervalued.
The Euro Area’s CPI has a subdued deviation rate, meaning that it tends to arrive near the median estimate and rarely does it miss or beat by more than 0.1%. Since tomorrow’s consensus projection stands at 2.1%, attractive risk-reward trades, according to my framework, would be to buy the “Yeses” at or below 1.9% and “Nos” at or above 2.2% at reasonable prices, because those levels require variances of 0.2% in either direction to lose money. The “Yeses” at 1.8% and 1.9% are going for $0.83 and $0.96 while the “Nos” at 2.2%, 2.3% and 2.4% are costing $0.83, $0.90 and $0.96.
A safe range trade in my opinion related to the China Containerized Freight Index is the “Yes” at 900 and the “No” at 1,500, thresholds that are costing $0.97 and $0.98. 900 hasn’t been breached all year while 1,500 was last exceeded in January.
The Singapore Overnight Rate Average is expected to increase to about 1.17% according to the pricing in our prediction market. It is a wildly volatile indicator with huge swings; however, I find the risk-reward profile of the “No” at 1.2% attractive at $0.58, considering that the latest rate was 0.96 as of October 29 and the ten-day mean and median are at 1.15% and 1.16%.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Oct. 30, 2025. Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred “Yes” and “No” answers throughout different levels.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx prediction market contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
Displayed outcome information is based on current market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC. Current market sentiment for ForecastEx contracts may be viewed at https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php. Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
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