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Posted December 12, 2025 at 12:58 pm
Yesterday’s trading on ForecastEx featured 3.3 million contracts transacted, and some of the most popular themes featuring more than 10k instruments exchanged throughout the session were the daily temperatures across US cities, the prices of Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures, the prices of Solana and Bitcoin and the US and Canadian dollar currency pair.
The forecast question asking if the Supreme Court will uphold President Trump’s tariffs by July 31 has experienced some volatility this week. The 35% probability on Tuesday declined to 23% yesterday before rebounding to 25% at the moment.
Next week’s central bank decisions from Japan and Mexico feature odds north of 92% that the former will hike while the latter will cut. In the last few days, participants have been growing more confident of the verdicts, since those same contracts were in the 80s earlier this week.
Canada’s Consumer Price Index is volatile, but participants are expecting the indicator to come in around 2.1%, a figure near October’s 2.2% result. There’s a 36% chance of a number north of 2.2%, and a 36% probability of a print south of 2.1%. Investors that want to position for a surprise in either direction could purchase both of the $0.36 contracts and earn $1.00 back if it comes in at 2% or lower or 2.3% or higher.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 12, 2025.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx forecast contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
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Displayed outcome information is based on current market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC. Current market sentiment for contracts may be viewed at ForecastEx at https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php. Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
This is commentary on economic, political and/or market conditions within the meaning of CFTC Regulation 1.71, and is not meant provide sufficient information upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction.
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Gamblers betting on economic releases, sports, and other fares not too distant from Casino betting in practice are not, however, going to predict how nine experienced Justices are going to interpret the law, nor are such glorified dice rollers going to be able to gauge the Administration’s case comments made to the Court. Might as well bet on a coin flip result, same concept.