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Posted November 11, 2025 at 12:59 pm
Forecast Ideas for Tomorrow’s Indian and German CPIs: Nov. 11, 2025
India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is highly volatile, but the consensus expects it to increase 0.5% year over year (y/y) to 197.8, up from September’s 197.2. For the number to land at 196 or under, the y/y figure would need to arrive at an unlikely negative 0.4%, a colossal miss from the projection. In data going back to 2011, India’s CPI has never sported a minus sign on an annualized basis, which supports the belief that the “Yes” contracts are undervalued from 193 up to 196. They’re ranging from $0.88 to $0.92 in cost. The indicator’s elevated deviation rate influenced my decision to avoid the 197 threshold.
Germany’s CPI rose 0.3% month over month according to the preliminary release provided by Euro Stat near the beginning of the month, landing it at 122.9679, which rounds to 123. Considering the historical lack of deviation between the initial and final releases, it’s pretty safe to say that it didn’t increase 0.1% or 0.5% to reach levels of 122.72 or 123.21. In consideration of the analysis and available thresholds, the “Yeses” at 122 and 122.5, as well as the “No” at 123.5 offer attractive risk-reward profiles in my opinion. They’re ranging in cost from $0.85 to $0.95.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Nov. 11, 2025. Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred “Yes” and “No” answers throughout different levels.
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