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Posted April 24, 2026 at 1:00 pm
Both the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) are expected to remain on hold next week with elevated degrees of confidence north of 94%, according to the Interactive Brokers prediction market. But it’s the outlooks of the policymakers that will be most significant for investors and fixed-income observers alike. Specifically, the road forward for rates will be top of mind, four years after an energy cost spike led monetary policy institutions to hike in a rush multiple times following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A similar picture exists today, as the Iran war is driving inflation well above the 2% objectives. Will members of the committee reflect anxiety related to those higher oil charges potentially spreading across the overall economy and leading to annualized prices pressures stabilizing ahead of 3%, or will officials look past this development as a one-time shock that will remedy as the calendar passes. Furthermore, other drivers of accelerating cost forces include tariffs pass-throughs and robust consumer spending?
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of April 24, 2026.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
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