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Posted May 2, 2025 at 11:25 am
Our new election contracts feature a trip east to the Vatican, where Pietro Parolin and Luis Antontio Tagle are the top two favorites for becoming the new head of the Catholic Church following the passing of Pope Francis. Parolin and Tagle carry 25% and 21% odds of reaching the helm while Peter Turkson, Matteo Zuppi and Peter Erdo sport probabilities of 15%, 13% and 6%.
This morning’s preliminary read of Hong Kong’s first-quarter economic growth reflected a 3.1% year-over-year progression. The figure is due for revision on May 16, the same day that the associated IBKR ForecastTrader Contracts expire. In consideration of a number on May 16 that is near the initial 3.1% estimate, I like buying the “Yes” answers on all six Contracts asking if the final result will exceed thresholds ranging from -1.8% to 2.2% and the “No” answers on the three thresholds ranging from 3.7% to 5.2%. The total cost of the combination trade is $7.74 and would deliver $9.00 back to the investor on a final figure as low as 2.3% and as high as 3.7%. In addition to the $9.00 payout that would result if all nine thresholds are correct, the investor would also receive about two weeks’ worth of interest-like incentive coupons that annualize at 3.83%.
Turning back to elections, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and San Antonio, Texas, Corey O’ Connor and Gina Ortiz Jones are the favorites to win the democratic party mayoral primary in the former case and the mayor seat in the latter. O’Connor’s chances stand at 63% while Ortiz Jones is at 40%. O’Connor’s opponent, current Mayor Ed Gainey, is at 35% while Ortiz Jones’s top adversaries, John Courage and Beto Altamirano, are at 17% and 11%.
Source for Images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of May 2, 2025.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx prediction market contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
Displayed outcome information is based on current market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC. Current market sentiment for ForecastEx contracts may be viewed at https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php. Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
This is commentary on economic, political and/or market conditions within the meaning of CFTC Regulation 1.71, and is not meant provide sufficient information upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction.
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