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Posted October 6, 2025 at 1:00 pm
Our prediction market enthusiasts aren’t too optimistic about a quick end to the government shutdown, assigning a significant 30% chance that the funding lapse will continue partially or fully through Nov. 1. Following the Oct. 1 closure, probabilities for the “Yes” contract have ranged between 24% and 39%, as folks consider the possibility that the GOP and Democrat standoff will last for an augmented period.
My estimate for US gasoline costs calls for a weekly decline, as heavier OPEC+ production prospects weighed on prices during the week starting on September 30 and ending today on October 6. Indeed, the strongly correlated futures for gasoline and crude oil traded from roughly $1.93 and $63.07 to $1.89 and $61.43 throughout the reference period. Against this backdrop, I like the risk-reward profiles of the “Nos” at $3.20 and $3.30, which are going for $0.93 and $0.95 because I don’t envision a 2.9% weekly increase from $3.11 considering the aforementioned market dynamics which support my $3.08 projection, in my opinion. This release was scheduled for tomorrow but will not be published on time due to the government shutdown.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of October 6, 2025.Red circle around the thresholds was inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred “No” answers throughout different levels.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx forecast contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
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