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EU CPI to Undershoot ECB’s 2% Target Tomorrow: Feb. 3, 2026

EU CPI to Undershoot ECB’s 2% Target Tomorrow: Feb. 3, 2026

Posted February 3, 2026 at 12:34 pm

Jose Torres
IBKR Macroeconomics

Tomorrow’s Eurozone Consumer Price Index is expected to come in at 1.7%, significantly undershooting the European Central Bank’s 2% target by a substantial margin and potentially opening up the door to a resumption in the institution’s cutting cycle, which many thought may have been over. But the range of possible outcomes for this specific report is particularly wide, as the monthly Reuters poll of 45 forecasters is characterized by a minimum of 1.5% and a maximum of 2.1%. Still, this indicator rarely misses the median by more than 0.1% and is likely to land between 1.6% and 1.8% in light of its historical tendencies. Against this backdrop, the “Nos” at 2% and 2.2% are quite undervalued, in my opinion, at $0.72 and $0.95, offering investors a broad path to capital gains on a number under 2.1%.

Eurozone CPI ForecastTrader contract
Pricing of Eurozone CPI ForecastTrader contract

Source for images: ForecastEx

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Feb. 3, 2026. Red circle around the thresholds was inserted by J. Torres to highlight “No” answers throughout different levels.

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