A Look at Five Econ Expirations For Tomorrow: May 20, 2026

Tomorrow’s initial unemployment claims are expected to signal ongoing stability in labor conditions, with the Interactive Brokers prediction market pointing to a number near 211k. Indeed, the anticipated figure would be unchanged from the prior report and come in around the four-week moving average of 204k. Meanwhile, the associated “Yes” contracts at 200k, 210k and 220k are priced at $0.90, $0.53 and $0.15, delivering a $1.00 back on each if the result arrives north of those specified thresholds. Furthermore, the monthly Reuters poll comprised of 34 forecasters surveyed stand at a median of 210k, against the backdrop of minimum and maximum projections of 200k and 215k.

Construction Activity to Slow

Housing starts are expected to have slowed down from March’s 1.502 million seasonally adjusted annualized units (SAAU) to around 1.43 million, as heavier mortgage rates, strong values and worsening affordability dynamics weighed on construction activity in April. The “Yeses” at 1.3 million, 1.4 million and 1.5 million are going for $0.90, $0.66 and $0.16, while the monthly Reuters poll consisting of 46 forecasters carries a median of 1.41 million amidst minimum and maximum projections of 1.337 million and 1.554 million.

Permits Expected to Rise Modestly Though

Despite housing starts expected to reflect a decline in tomorrow morning’s report, building permits are anticipated to rise modestly. The difference between the two indicators is that the former is defined by actual groundbreaking, while the latter represents applications to begin construction at some point in the future. The monthly Reuters poll of 37 forecasters carries a median estimate of 1.39 million SAAU, amidst a wide range of possible outcomes spanning from 1.35 million to 1.45 million. In the Interactive Brokers prediction market, meanwhile, the “Yeses” at 1.3 million and 1.4 million SAAU are going for $0.74 and $0.36.

Activity To Remain Buoyant

Economic activity is expected to have remained buoyant in the past few days as the most likely result in tomorrow’s index from the Dallas Fed is 2.58%, according to the Interactive Brokers prediction market. Meanwhile, the last 10 prints only featured a number below 2.61% once, and in consideration of the recent trends and cyclical momentum, I think the “Yes” at 2.6% is attractive here at just $0.48. Over and under, the “Yeses” at 2.4% and 2.8% are priced at $0.67 and $0.28.

Japan CPI Expected to Rise 1.6% Y/Y

Japan’s Consumer Price Index is expected to have risen 1.6% year over year to the 113.3 level. Against this backdrop, pricing in the Interactive Brokers prediction market is currently at $0.80, $0.23 and $0.15 across the “Yeses” corresponding with the 112.8, 113.6 and 114.4 thresholds. Considering that it’s highly unlikely to get a number below 113.1 or above 113.5, due to the indicator’s subdued relative deviation, positioning with “Yes” and “No” contracts below and above those figures offer attractive risk-reward dynamics in my opinion. 

Source for images: ForecastEx

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the afternoon of May 20, 2026. 

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