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Forecast Contract

Trading Term

A Forecast Contract is an exchange-traded event contract that settles at $1.00 if a defined outcome occurs and $0.00 if it does not. Because the payout is binary and fixed, the price of a YES contract can be read directly as the market’s collective estimate of the probability of the event, so a contract trading at $0.30 corresponds to roughly a 30% chance. ForecastEx lists Forecast Contracts on outcomes such as daily high and low temperatures at specific weather stations, Atlantic hurricane counts, major hurricane landfall by region, severe storm counts, crop yields, and global temperature thresholds.

Hurricane Forecast Contracts as a Diversifying Asset in an Investment Portfolio

How Forecast Contracts Can Help Mitigate Florida’s Insurance Crisis

Forecast Contracts as a Tool to Manage Non-Catastrophic Weather Risk

Disaster Insurance Applications of Forecast Contracts

Hurricane Forecast Contracts as Efficient Reinsurance

Hurricane Forecast Contracts

Fair Value Weather & Climate — Monday, August 3, 2026

Bundling “NO” Hurricane Landfall Forecast Contracts to Reduce Downside Risk

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