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Posted August 31, 2026 at 1:15 pm
A look at some of the most interesting weather and climate prediction markets at ForecastEx and elsewhere.
The ForecastEx daily temperature prediction market for tomorrow, Tuesday, September 1st, 2026, shows notable differences from the National Weather Service (even after accounting for a typical offset), with Los Angeles and Houston both currently three degrees cooler at ForecastEx, and Chicago and Charlotte three degrees warmer.
More details on every station on the map are available here.
Other notable numbers in brief:
The most undervalued contract for Sunday was a No on the New York City low below 70 degrees. With 31 hours to go, it traded at 10 cents, and the low eventually came in at exactly 70 degrees, which pays No and yielded a 9.5x return net of fees. Denver’s Yes below 62 degrees returned the same 9.5x from the same price, settling at 59 degrees.
The forecast for Los Angeles tomorrow has some of the highest uncertainty in the country, with thirteen models ranging from 71.8°F to 83.1°F on the high end.
There is almost as much disagreement on low temperatures (58.0°F to 69.0°F), but it’s not a matter of models disagreeing on overall temperature; rather, it’s whether the diurnal cycle will be large or small. Models with low lows tend to have higher highs. The American model has a high of 71.8°F over a low of 69.0°F, a day that moves less than three degrees from dawn to afternoon, while the European model has 83.1°F over 64.2°F. This points to a disagreement about the marine layer breakup.
The European, German, Canadian, German statistical, and National Weather Service forecasts clear low clouds during the morning, with highs from 77.9°F to 83.1°F.
Conversely, seven of the thirteen models persist low clouds through the afternoon, with highs from 71.8°F to 75.0°F.
Thus, it looks like sky cover is the variable that will drive the temperature here.
The ‘additional variable’ panels on the Los Angeles page show each forecast’s hourly cloud, wind, and dewpoint beneath the emerging observations, so a visitor is able to assess which models look like they might be getting the physical story right before it shows up in that model’s temperature being right.
Extensive supporting information for all weather, climate, and energy markets at ForecastEx is available here.
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Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC, as well as other CFTC-registered DCMs, including Kalshi and CME. For more information, see ibkr.com/realfex Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
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