Rotation trade remains best-selling menu item

Briefing.com Summary:

*Blue-chip stocks are advancing as the semiconductor stocks continue to retreat.

*Several Dow components are up nicely in pre-market trading following earnings results and other corporate news.

*The equal-weighted S&P 500 is outperforming the market cap-weighted S&P 500 year-to-date by a large margin.

Market participants have their share of developments to choose from, and the mixed standing of the equity futures market suggests they are choosing more than just one item around which to trade.

Currently, the S&P 500 futures are up eight points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 202 points and are trading 1.1% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 511 points and are trading 0.9% above fair value.

What is on the menu?

• There is continuing weakness in the semiconductor stocks, with Chinese competition concerns and a massive drop in South Korea’s Kospi (-10.8%), which was led by SK Hynix (SKHY) and Samsung Electronics, serving as the key catalysts.
• There is a further downturn in oil prices (WTI -1.7% to $81.19/bbl), driven by talk of a possible U.S. deal with Iran and reports of Oman and Iran discussing an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
• Dow components Boeing (BA), Coca-Cola (KO), and Sherwin-Williams (SHW) are nicely higher following their earnings results; Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is up 2.1% after announcing a $5.5 billion ovarian talc litigation resolution.
• The FOMC goes into session for its two-day meeting. A new policy directive will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday. There is a 35.8% probability of a 25-basis point hike at the July meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Early selling pressure will be concentrated on the semiconductor stocks and technology sector, yet the rotational trade is alive and well.

Coming into today, the market cap-weighted S&P 500 is up 8.3% for the year, but the equal-weighted S&P 500 is up 12.3%, proving so far that the broader market has been able to hold its own when the tech stocks and mega-cap leaders languish.

There is some nervous tension in the market, however, as to whether this dynamic can persist or if there will be a “catch-down trade,” where the struggles of the tech leaders become too much for the broader market to escape.

The direction of interest rates, and the pace of change, may just be the deciding factor. The 10-yr note yield is idling at 4.63%, steady in front of today’s $44 billion 7-yr note auction and tomorrow’s FOMC decision.

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Originally Posted July 28, 2026 – Rotation trade remains best-selling menu item