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Posted July 22, 2026 at 1:03 pm
Initial unemployment claims have only sunk below 210k once in the past ten weeks, which happened to be in last Thursday’s report. This indicator is usually loftier during the summer months, as teacher-related volatility raise the numbers and against this backdrop, the “Yes” at 210k is incredibly undervalued at $0.15 in my opinion, as a number of 211k or above would deliver $1.00 back to investors, marking a 7x-like return. Additionally, the monthly Reuters poll of 27 forecasters carries a median estimate of 212k amidst minimum and maximum projections of 195k and 220k, indicating that the pricing should probably be much closer to $0.50 on this one. Over and under, meanwhile, the “Yeses” at 220k, 200k and 190k are going for $0.07, $0.79 and $0.93.
The Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index (WEI) has been volatile lately, as some of the last few reports signaled significant changes in both directions. Indeed, in June and July, the minimum and maximum statistics were 2.55% and 3.12%. Against this backdrop, participants in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market are looking for a number within that range, as the “Yeses” at 2.4% and 3.2% are going for $0.92 and $0.14. Meanwhile, the midpoint projection is right around 2.8%, a threshold carrying a Yes” contract that’s priced at $0.54.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is almost certainly going to hold rates steady at 2.4% tomorrow morning following a hike last month, as policymakers see limited spreading of inflation from higher energy prices across the continent’s economies. Additionally, the committee wants to analyze how business activity and employment reacts to tighter financial conditions before adjusting its benchmark further. The Interactive Brokers Prediction Market sees the likelihood of a pause at 98%.
The Japan Consumer Price Index (CPI) “No” at 113.6 is attractive in my opinion because a year over year (y/y) increase of 1.8% would be required for this contract to lose, a level the indicator hasn’t reached since December. Meanwhile, I’m anticipating a steady 1.5% y/y for the month of June, as a climb to even 1.7% would be a significant surprise considering that global inflationary gauges generally peaked in the month prior after crude oil charges jumped to approximately $120 on the West Texas Intermediate benchmark. The $0.78 is too low for this trade, as I believe it belongs in the $0.90s.
Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of July 22, 2026.
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