2026: A happy new year for consumers?

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Consumers

With all eyes on equity markets to start the new year, it’s a good opportunity to dive deeper into underlying market trends—including the state of the consumer. As 2025 ended, there were definitely signs of a slowdown in the U.S. labour market, including a moderating of consumer spending. This does not mean that consumer spending has stopped; rather, it indicates that consumers are being a bit more selective about what they’re purchasing. Heading into 2026, there are number of potentially bullish signs for consumer health, including President Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill and possible interest rate cuts. These tailwinds could help support consumer spending and, in turn, provide a boost to corporate earnings. Going forward, we’ll be closely monitoring employment data and jobless claims to see how consumers are being affected. We’ll also keep a close eye on consumer sentiment and its impact on retail sales; sometimes, consumer pessimism does not actually translate into lower spending. Regardless, sentiment will be an important indicator for the trajectory of consumer health and the overall state of the economy.

Bottom line: While consumer health has been trending slightly downward, there are signs that it could rebound in the early part of 2026.

Gold

Gold and other precious metals experienced a record year in 2025, with gold prices ending the year at approximately $4,300 USD per ounce.¹ Can this momentum keep going? We think it can. In our view, gold wasn’t over-invested in 2025; if anything, it was under-invested given the volatile market landscape. With investors now getting a little nervous about valuations, the thesis for continued gold investment still holds. Many of the key drivers that have lifted gold prices also remain intact—central banks are still buying it, investors still need it as a hedge, and it remains a reliable store of value. Another potentially bullish indicator is the recent pullback in cryptocurrency prices, which could cause investors to look to gold as another means of diversifying their portfolios. Together, this represents an encouraging landscape for precious metals.

Bottom line: We expect market volatility to persist in 2026, and think gold will continue to serve as a good insurance policy for portfolios.

Oil

Tensions between the United States and Venezuela have continued to rise over the holiday season, and given Venezuela’s role as a major oil producer, this has raised questions about the potential for price shocks in the coming year. We are expecting more oil shocks throughout 2026 than we saw in 2025, whether due to the U.S.-Venezuela situation or other geopolitical issues that may pop up. However, the fundamentals of energy markets have not changed—which is to say that there continues to be an excess of supply and not enough demand. This tells us that any oil shock is likely to be temporary in nature. We’ve seen this time and again whenever political tensions flare up: oil prices increase but then normalize in relatively short order. These kinds of geopolitical risks are important to monitor. However, as we’ve said previously, they point toward a trade rather than a long-term strategy—at least until we see the differential between supply and demand narrowing. Overall, in terms of portfolio positioning, we remain neutral on oil.

Bottom line: While tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela could cause oil prices to spike, we’d any such impacts to be short-lived.

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Originally Posted January 6, 2026 – 2026: A happy new year for consumers?