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Posted November 17, 2025 at 12:51 pm
The probability of the Fed pausing in December reached a fresh high of 56% on Saturday, during an active trading weekend. The odds have shifted materially after a series of speakers from the central bank voiced worries about inflation that have risen in recent months. The heavier cost forces influenced skepticism that a reduction next month would be prudent in light of a 3-handle on the Consumer Price Index. Indeed, the chance of a hold rose from just 30% last Wednesday to north of 50% on Friday. Approximately 61,000 contracts are open that are tied to the final US rate decision of 2025.
Forecasters Are Bullish Stocks, Bearish Crypto
Other contracts with strong interest in recent days have been whether the Democratic Party will win a majority in the House next year, futures prices on the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones Industrial indices, and Bitcoin as well as Ethereum. Investors are expecting higher stocks by year-end, according to current pricing, but that same confidence isn’t extending to crypto, with just 47% odds that Bitcoin will finish 2025 above 95k; it traded close to 96k earlier today. Separately, the likelihood of a flip in the lower chamber of Congress remains at an elevated 67%.
Trade Idea for Tomorrow
Retail gasoline prices fell slightly last week, according to futures in real-time exchanges as well as the closely tied crude oil commodity, of which fuel is a derivative of. Futures are down by 2.1% and 0.5% across both of the critical supplies, signaling that we should see a number around $3.03, lighter than the previously reported $3.056. In light of the circumstances, the “No” contracts at $3.10, $3,20 and $3.30 offer favorable risk-reward profiles, in my opinion, since I’m forecasting a decreasing figure. And the “Yes” at $2.90 appears safe too, since a 5.1% weekly plunge isn’t in the cards from my perspective. The four distinct thresholds are ranging from $0.90 to $0.96 in cost.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Nov. 17, 2025. Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred “Yes” and “No” answers throughout different levels.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
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