Election Odds Unplugged

Mary MacNamara and Interactive Brokers’ Jose Torres discuss key mayoral and gubernatorial races, prediction market odds, and what these political shifts could mean for affordability, trade, and economic growth.

Mary MacNamara  

Hello everybody and welcome to our Cents of Security podcast. I’m joined here with Interactive Brokers Senior Economist, Jose Torres. Hi Jose. How are you?

Jose Torres  

Hi, Mary. Great to see you. Great to be here. We are a day taping this one day before November 4th, which is the election day. We have a lot of mayoral elections going on. The most popular one here has been New York City, and then the governor’s races of Virginia and New Jersey have also been very popular.

Mary MacNamara  

So why don’t you give us a heads up? What’s going on in New York? We’re close by. It’s getting nice and fall. The weather’s turning. It’s getting colder. So, tell us what do you think?

Jose Torres  

Yeah, it looks like Mamdani’s lead has been widening in recent days. Recently some high profile folks in the business community have come out in support of governor, former state Governor Andrew Cuomo. His odds or his chances are very limited at this point. He’s only at 8%. Zohran Mamdani’s odds are up to 92% in our prediction market. Mamdani’s platform is, he’s looking to change things significantly. He’s looking, affordability is a huge. Part of his plan, he’s looking to freeze rents for rent regulated apartments in New York City, which comprise roughly half of the apartment supply. So that’ll really offer a lot of relief for lower- and middle-class households.

Even though those, a lot of those rent regulated apartments, excuse me, they get passed on to generations later. So, it doesn’t only benefit the lowest income. New Yorkers. There’s a lot of middle-class folks, and sometimes even upper income folks that live in rent regulated apartments is a big aspect of the city.

Also, he’s looking to make childcare free, universal. He’s looking to make public transportation. New York City trains and buses are very popular used a lot by the population. He’s looking to make that free as well as more efficient and faster. Of course, those things I just said cost a lot of money.

His plan is to tax the wealthiest New Yorkers an additional few percentage points so that there’s funds available for those projects.

Mary MacNamara  

So obviously we have a lot of people who are against that, right? Who would potentially have to fund that. But then you have a huge uproar of people who know the city is very expensive and even middle class or, just starting out mid-level in your managerial career. It takes a lot to live in New York City.

Jose Torres  

Absolutely. And that’s part of the whole supply demand dynamic. The city can just continue to lure residents no matter what. After 9/11 there was talks, the city will never be the same. Within a few years, New York City was back. Great financial crisis of 2008. You heard similar remarks, City came back in roughly four to five years, then COVID Pandemic. Oh, this time the city’s not coming back. City has come back. Rents are now at all-time highs again. And then you also have cases happening in the 20th century, in the 1900’s of times where New York City was going through dark moments and folks counting the city out.

But just the safety net, the city has the Ellis Island tradition of immigrants going there first. Then the cultural aspects of the city as well. It really always finds a way to bring in more residents.

Mary MacNamara  

I don’t know about you, but I love New York. I love going there. I love the museums. I lived there for a while in the city and it was a great experience. And so I hope this is a great race. I can only hope positive things come out of it and I’m sure it’ll be a learning experience for everybody.

Jose Torres  Yeah. We also have the Virginia Gover Governor Race and the New Jersey Governor Race. We have Abigail Spanberger. She’s leading there with 94% wins. She’s of the Democratic Party as well. Winsome Earle-Sears is at 5% almost 800,000 contracts open. Awaiting settlement election days tomorrow.

In New Jersey, we have Mikie Sherrill. She’s at 83% above Jack Ciattarelli, who’s at 18% roughly 2.3 million contracts traded there rather 2.3 million open contracts. Potentially waiting until a decision is made. And then in New York City, that’s been the most popular race, roughly 14 million contracts traded.

So yeah, in these three races, the Democrats are carrying commanding leads as far as what Abigail Spanberger of Virginia and what her plan is, she wants to grow a business investment. Grow the labor force and offer more apprenticeship like programs for Virginians. And she also wants to position the state to gain from the changing international trade. She wants to position the state to benefit from the changing trade landscape globally. We know President Trump has implemented tariffs and supply chains and trade routes are all shifting, so she’s looking to position the state in a better way for that manufacturing jobs included.

As for Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey, her most important aspects are affordability, protecting children, and making state government more accountable.

Mary MacNamara  

Great. And Virginia has that big port, right? So no wonder they’re interested in the whole tariff aspect.

Jose Torres  

Absolutely really close to DC as well. Also negatively affected by the government shutdown, which our participants are expecting to continue, they we’re not expecting a reconciliation today or tomorrow. We’re probably some somewhere around the middle of the month as of right now.

That’s where the odds are.

Mary MacNamara  

All right. I think we’re good for now and tomorrow’s going to be very exciting, so we’ll have to see what happens and then maybe we can join up later in the week and talk about the results.

Jose Torres  

Absolutely, Mary, that’d be great. Looking forward to it.

Mary MacNamara  

Awesome. Thank you, Jose.

Jose Torres  

Thank you.