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Posted October 31, 2025 at 12:53 pm
Zohran Mamdani, Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger are expected to win their respective elections scheduled for this Tuesday, Nov. 4. The three democratic candidates running for New York City’s mayorship and governorships in New Jersey and Virginia carry commanding 92%, 82% and 93% probabilities of victory. There are approximately a whopping 13 million, 1.81 million and 666k contracts open that are tied to the political contests. The races have experienced significant interest from our participants, driving volumes to a fresh year-to-date high of 3.36 million last Tuesday and nearly 3.23 million yesterday.
Odds of the government shutdown ending by the 7th, 14th and 21st days of November stand at 26%, 60% and 72%, which places the 50-50 coinflip level around Nov. 12. Pressure has been ramping up lately across both sides of the political aisle, with this weekend potentially serving as a turning point in negotiations. Indeed, food stamp funding is set to run out tomorrow, at the same time that health insurance open enrollment commences. The absence of nutritional dollars for low-income families and the expected uptick in premiums are poised to anger constituents and possibly motivate lawmakers to engage with each other to strike a deal soon.
This morning’s initial Hong Kong gross domestic product growth rate came in at 3.8%, but our forecast contracts are tied to the final release scheduled for Nov. 14. In consideration of the subdued historical difference between the two prints, the “Yes” contracts from 0.5% to 3.5% and the “Nos” from 4.5% to 5.5% offer favorable risk-reward profiles, in my opinion. They range from just $0.29 to $0.95 in price.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to keep rates steady this Monday (US EST Time). Participants assign a 77% chance that the benchmark will remain unchanged in light of strengthening inflation but there’s an approximate 21% probability that the monetary policy authority will cut to offer support to the continent’s economic prospects.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Oct. 31, 2025. Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred “Yes” and “No” answers throughout different levels.
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What a sad commentary on American voters.
People are misdirected, not knowing history or facts. Look at Europe, a predictor for us!!