Forecast Trade Ideas Expiring Tomorrow: Oct. 22, 2025

The Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index has only fallen beneath 2% less than a handful of times this year (see chart below) but the “Yes” at that threshold costs just $0.41. It’s significantly undervalued, in my opinion, alongside the 1.8% and 1.6% levels, which are going for $0.75 and $0.90. There’s no indication of a significant slowing in economic conditions that warrants a huge drop over seven days from 2.51% to 2% that would caused “Team Yes” to lose money here.

Short Strangle Idea for Japan’s CPI

I’m expecting Japan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) to increase 2.5% year over year in September and reach a level of 112.24. I believe the “Yeses” below that threshold are undervalued as well as the “Nos” above that with the exception of 112.4 because an unchanged 2.7% y/y result from August is possible and would land the figure at 112.5 after rounding. Meanwhile, a highly unlikely 2.3% y/y print or under would be required for the “Yes” at 112 to lose while a huge beat of 3.1% would drive a loss for the “No” at 112.8. For those reasons I find the risk-reward profiles of the “Yeses” from 110.4 to 112 attractive as well as the “Nos” at 112.8 and 113.2. The thresholds range from $0.64 to $0.95 in cost.

Hong Kong CPI Is Volatile

Hong Kong’s CPI is volatile and carries an elevated deviation rate. I favor going wide for tomorrow’s print against that backdrop. The 1.2% y/y median estimate represents an increase from 1.1% in the previous print. Meanwhile, the monthly Reuters poll consists of a narrow range sporting a minimum of 1.1% and a maximum of 1.3%. In light of these dynamics, I find the risk-reward profiles of the “Yes” at 0.5% and the “Nos” at 1.7%, 2% and 2.3% attractive. They are currently priced between $0.95 and $0.97.

Singapore’s CPI Almost Certainly Positive

Singapore’s CPI is almost certainly going to print a positive number considering that the median estimate is at 0.6% amidst a minimum and maximum projection of 0.3% and 0.7% according to the monthly Reuters poll consisting of 15 forecasters. I find the risk-reward profile of the “Yes” at 0% attractive; it’s priced at $0.96. There’s no indication of the nation’s inflationary pressures falling that steeply recently, especially as growth has been impressively strong.

Bank of Korea Likely to Hold

The Bank of Korea is likely to hold rates steady at tomorrow’s meeting, although there is a modest chance that the monetary policy authority will cut. Indeed, there’s an 80% approximate probability of an unchanged benchmark, roughly 18% odds of a 25-basis point reduction amidst a 0% possibility of a hike.

Source for images: ForecastEx

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Oct. 22, 2025. Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred “Yes” and “No” answers throughout different levels.

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