NVIDIA compensating for lack of broad market conviction

Briefing.com Summary:

*NVIDIA, up 1.9% after a big price target increase, is holding the line for the broader market.

*Delta Air Lines and PepsiCo both exceeded earnings estimates.

*Not a lot of conviction in the stock market or bond market at the moment.

Yesterday was day eight of the U.S. government shutdown, and it was also the eighth time in the last nine sessions that the S&P 500 finished higher. In fact, it was yet another record closing high for the S&P 500… and Nasdaq Composite.

Today is day nine of the government shutdown, so things are looking up for the stock market. We jest (sort of).

Currently, the S&P 500 futures are up one point and are trading in line with fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 12 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 18 points and are trading in line with fair value.

There isn’t much conviction overall, but that’s okay for “the market,” with NVIDIA (NVDA) indicated 1.9% higher after Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target. The new target suggests there is 59% upside for the AI leader from yesterday’s closing price.

NVIDIA’s market cap is $4.6 trillion currently, so it has the girth to move the market when many other stocks aren’t moving or to offset losses when many other stocks are trading lower. It is a beacon for the AI trade, and when it is shining, “the market” isn’t typically doing too badly.

And such is the case this morning. Other supports include Delta Air Lines (DAL) and PepsiCo (PEP), both of which exceeded earnings expectations. Delta, meanwhile, said it saw travel demand pick up in June and July and that it isn’t seeing any impact from the government shutdown.

Costco (COST) is up 1.4% after impressing with its September same-store sales results; Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) is little changed after reporting a 31.4% yr/yr increase in September revenues; and Akero Therapeutics (AKRO) is surging 17.6% following the news that it will be acquired by Novo Nordisk (NVO) for $54.00 per share in cash and a contingent value right of $6.00 per share.

Ferrari (RACE) is down 12% after providing an updated strategic plan at its Capital Markets Day, and Tesla (TSLA) is trading 1.4% lower on a Reuters report that it is being investigated for alleged full self-driving violations.

In brief, there are plenty of idiosyncratic corporate news items, but not a lot of broad market excitement surrounding them. That is true for macro developments, too, which include Israel and Hamas agreeing to phase one of a Gaza peace plan and China tightening its export controls on rare earth materials for high-tech products and military applications.

The Treasury market is in a similar state. The 2-yr note yield is up one basis point to 3.59%, and the 10-yr note yield is up one basis point to 4.14%. Not bad, not good, just not much movement in the wake of overnight developments.

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Originally Posted October 9, 2025 – NVIDIA compensating for lack of broad market conviction