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Posted August 19, 2025 at 10:30 am
As of 8:00 am Eastern Time on 8/19/2025, Hurricane Erin was a Category 2 storm with maximum sustained winds of 110 miles per hour.
It was about 750 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, moving northwest at 7 miles per hour.
Erin’s winds are weakening but it is growing in size and producing major rip currents and large waves. In its center, it is producing waves over 40 feet high, and waves on the portions of the East Coast of the United States will likely reach over 20 feet high later this week.
From Windy.com (ECMWF WAM model)
As the E in Erin suggests, it is the 5th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season and is the first hurricane.
The average number of Atlantic hurricanes from 1991 to 2020 was 7.2.
ForecastEx has a market for the number of Atlantic hurricanes in 2025. It has been a relatively slow start to the hurricane season, but typically 82% of hurricane activity occurs from this date forward, so there is plenty of time for many more hurricanes to develop, and we still have very little certainty on where the season will ultimately end up.
From NOAA National Hurricane Center.
In fact, there are two disturbances in Hurricane Erin’s wake that have the potential to develop further and possibly add to the hurricane count.
From NOAA National Hurricane Center.
The current ForecastEx market for the number of Atlantic hurricanes still suggests a more active than typical season with 60% odds for 8 or more hurricanes (again, the average is 7.2).
From ForecastTrader.
Below are paths from the NOAA Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), where each path represents a plausible future trajectory within the uncertainty of our observations of the environment (the butterfly effect) and uncertainty in modelling the physical system.
From WeatherNerds.
Below is another set of possible paths generated from Google DeepMind’s AI model (in blue) as well as the premier global numerical weather model (from ECMWF, often referred to as the ‘Euro’ model, in orange).
From Google DeepMind.
Hurricane Erin is expected to weaken going forward and continue to lose strength over the week. Below is the forecasted strength in wind speed from a number of different forecast models.
From Tropical Tidbits.
Similarly, below is a set of possible wind speed trajectories associated with each path in the Google DeepMind plot above.
From Google DeepMind.
The ensemble of path and strength forecasts indicates that Erin has virtually zero chance of triggering a YES on any of ForecastEx markets for major (Category 3+) landfalling hurricanes (where landfalling is defined by the eye intersecting a coastline).
From ForecastEx
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