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Posted June 6, 2025 at 10:45 am
Until ongoing tariff uncertainty is resolved, countries may be hesitant to strike new trade deals with the US.
Despite the noise of the trade war, US financial markets and the economy have shown remarkable resilience.
We continue to believe non-US dollar assets are more attractively valued and well-positioned in today’s environment.
Feeling dizzy? You’re not alone. Last week began with a whirlwind: A 50% US tariff on European Union exports was delayed just days after being announced. A few days later, the Court of International Trade declared many of the Trump-era tariffs invalid, including ones announced on “Liberation Day.” Then hours later, a US Federal Appeals Court paused that ruling from the trade court, putting the impacted tariffs back in place until further legal arguments can be made.
Spare a thought for the researchers at the Yale Budget Lab, who are constantly updating the “US effective tariff rate.” Their estimates have swung wildly — from 28% just after Liberation Day to 6.9% following the trade court’s ruling, and now likely back to the mid-teens after the appeal.1
Where trade policy goes from here is anyone’s guess. Many of us have likely been brushing up on Sections 122 and 338 of the US Trade Act. Until the standoff between the Trump administration and Congress is resolved, countries may be hesitant to strike new trade deals with the US. The bottom line: Policy uncertainty is here to stay.
Despite the noise, US financial markets and the economy have shown remarkable resilience:
Our focus on the US this week isn’t to suggest investors ignore global opportunities. On the contrary, we continue to believe non-US dollar assets are more attractively valued and well-positioned in today’s environment. But it’s worth noting that, despite the policy fog, the US economic backdrop has remained relatively sound.
| Data release | Why it’s important | |
|---|---|---|
| June 2 | US ISM manufacturing | Leading indicator that tends to capture inflection points in the economy |
| June 2 | UK house prices | Details health of UK housing market |
| June 2 | China Purchasing Managers’ Index | Leading indicator that tends to capture inflection points in the economy |
| June 3 | US capital goods orders | Insight into business investment as trade uncertainty hits sentiment |
| June 3 | Europe Consumer Price Index (CPI) | Potential to influence European Central Bank (ECB) policy decisions |
| June 4 | US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) | Detailed look at demand side of labor market |
| June 5 | Europe Producer Price Index (PPI) | Early look at price movements from producers’ perspective |
| June 6 | US nonfarm payrolls | Details health of US job market |
| June 6 | Europe ECB meeting | Insight into direction of European policymaking |
| June 6 | Europe retail sales | Highlights state of European consumer |
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Originally Posted on June 2, 2025
Despite trade policy uncertainty, US economy has been resilient by Invesco US
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