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Posted January 27, 2026 at 12:48 pm
On the eve of tomorrow’s Fed decision, which is almost certainly going to feature a pause, the projected road ahead for additional accommodation is quite dovish. In 2026, prediction market participants believe that there are 21% and 23% chances of exactly two or three rate cuts by year end. Meanwhile, there’s an 11% likelihood of just one reduction and a 14% probability of four. Finally, when analyzing the odds for deeper drops in the central bank’s benchmark, prospects for precisely five or six cuts are at only 5% and 3%.
Meanwhile, tomorrow’s 99% chance of a Fed pause features uncertainty related to voting members formally dissenting against the central bank’s decision. Indeed, the probability of exactly one, two or three officials disagreeing with the verdict are at 46%, 41% and 10%, with Governor Stephen Miran, who supports much deeper cuts, sustaining the outlook for continued objections at current and future meetings.
Tomorrow’s Bank of Canada (BoC) decision is also expected to feature a pause with a 99% degree of certainty as monetary policy officials in Ottawa face similar conditions as their Washington counterparts. Indeed, persistent economic growth and above target inflation are keeping both institutions on hold this Wednesday, as they wait for risks of declining employment trends or accelerating cost pressures to respond via looser or tighter polices.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Jan. 27, 2026.
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