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Posted December 12, 2025 at 9:45 am
Deepwater Asset Management‘s investor Gene Munster predicts that Tesla Inc.‘s (NASDAQ:TSLA) deliveries will miss market expectations next year.
In a blog post shared by the investor on Thursday, Munster predicted that the deliveries would miss analysts’ estimates. “We believe next year deliveries will be flat to up 5%,” Munster said, predicting a relatively conservative figure in comparison with the market expectations of a 16% surge for the EV giant.
He reiterated that the delivery expectations wouldn’t have an effect on the company’s investment case, which is “built on FSD, Robotaxi and Optimus.” It’s worth noting that the latest data suggests Tesla’s November sales in the U.S. fell 23%, hitting a near four-year low.
The investor predicted that Tesla would commence driverless Robotaxi operations in five major cities next year. “We believe Robotaxi will be approved without a safety driver by the end of the year,” the investor said. Tesla recently cleared the self-certification process for its Robotaxi operations in Nevada.
Musk had predicted driverless operations in Austin by the end of the year, which he recently reaffirmed his commitment to. Munster, however, says that beyond Austin, Tesla could offer driverless Robotaxis across Dallas, San Francisco, Phoenix, and Las Vegas.
He also shared that Alphabet Inc.-backed (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG) Waymo would hit the 1 million rides-per-week mark next year. “At 1m rides per week, Waymo would capture about 1.3% of annual rides in the US,” Munster said, adding that the sector was still in its early stages.
Waymo recently hit the 450,000 rides-per-week milestone, according to an investor note. The company also shared that it had reached 14 million paid Robotaxi rides for the year.
Price Action: TSLA declined 0.30% to $445.54 during pre-market trading, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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Originally Posted December 12, 2025 – Gene Munster Predicts Tesla Deliveries Will Miss Expectations Next Year, Says Waymo To Hit 1 Million Rides Per Week Mark
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