Seeing a basis to be rationally exuberant

Briefing.com Summary:

*Vice President Vance reported that great progress has been made in negotiations with Iran.

*Microsoft secured a 20-year power deal with Chevron for a data center in Texas.

*Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan passed away at the age of 100.

The U.S. and Iran have given themselves 60 days to negotiate final details regarding Iran’s nuclear program, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the release of frozen Iranian assets. If the past 48 hours are any indication, it is going to be a long 60 days for market analysts following the twists and turns of this process.

Briefly, after the memorandum of understanding was signed last week, Israel and Hezbollah were right back at it, prompting an assertion from Iran that it is again closing the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices went up, and equity futures prices went down in the wake of these developments.

Now, however, oil prices are down and equity futures prices are up following an update from Vice President Vance, who said from Switzerland that the U.S. and Iran have made great progress and that the Strait of Hormuz is open. Iran also acknowledged that major progress has been made in talks with the U.S., according to Bloomberg.

This is looking to be a day-by-day headline ordeal, and true to form, the equity market will take a foot when given an inch on what sounds like progress toward a final deal that will hopefully turn a ceasefire into a lasting peace.

Currently, the S&P 500 futures are down two points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 94 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 40 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value.

With the smoke clearing from the weekend dustup, market participants are setting their sights yet again on the semiconductor stocks. The ongoing momentum there has caused a positive stir ahead of the opening bell, along with an announcement that Microsoft (MSFT) has struck a 20-year power deal with Chevron (CVX) for a data center in Texas.

The latter is just the latest catalyst for an AI trade that shows no signs of stopping despite recriminations that it is the picture of an asset bubble. Some might even say that it is a sign of “irrational exuberance.”

Enter former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, who uttered that famous phrase in 1996 before the dot-com bubble really got going. Mr. Greenspan passed away today at the age of 100.

The salient point for many is that Mr. Greenspan’s words might have caused some upset for the stock market initially, but it soon regrouped, and it was several more years before the irrational exuberance came back to bite it hard.

There isn’t much bite in the market these days. Last week, the S&P 500 scored its eleventh weekly gain in the last 12 weeks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 logged new record highs, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 7.3%, leaving it up 102.5% year-to-date.

That is exuberance alright, and it may just be irrational in some cases. Overall, though, the market keeps seeing the tremendous earnings growth and the bid to stick with diplomacy in the Middle East as a basis to be rationally exuberant.

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Originally Posted June 22, 2026 – Seeing a basis to be rationally exuberant