Running to and from market-moving excuses

Briefing.com Summary:

*The equity futures are lower but off their overnight lows, as oil prices have come off their overnight highs.

*Tesla, IBM, Honeywell, and ServiceNow are lower after their earnings reports.

*There was nothing in the initial jobless claims number to suggest the labor market is in a dire state.

The S&P 500 futures were down close to 50 points in overnight action, falling by the wayside, so to speak, along with the likes of Tesla (TSLA), IBM (IBM), and ServiceNow (NOW) following their earnings reports. There was also some understandable selling interest following the sharp run to record highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq and the bump in oil prices amid the rancorous jawboning between the U.S. and Iran.

True to bull market form, that weakness has been bought.

Currently, the S&P 500 futures are down 18 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 66 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 253 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value.

The catalyst for the recovery was a CCTV report that preparations for talks between the U.S. and Iran might see a breakthrough by tomorrow. That got the ball rolling on some buy-the-dip efforts that were stepped up in many of the mega-cap stocks, which moved the futures market.

It also moved the oil market. WTI crude futures hit $97.00/bbl overnight but are now up just 0.8% at $93.70/bbl.

There are daily reports about how the stock market has looked through the Iran situation; hence, it is at record highs. The action in the equity futures market and oil market, though, underscores that the stock market, content for now to see through the Iran situation, nonetheless keeps looking at it as an excuse to continue to rally.

With the Nasdaq Composite up 19.2% from its March low and the S&P 500 up 13.0% from its March low, though, one begins to wonder if the market is running out of excuses.

There are no excuses in the latest initial jobless claims report. It was as solid as ever.

Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18 increased by 6,000 to 214,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 212,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending April 11 increased by 12,000 to 1.821 million.

The key takeaway from the report is that there is nothing in the level of initial jobless claims—a leading indicator—that suggests the labor market is in a dire state.

That is good news, just as most of the Q1 earnings results since yesterday’s close have been. Good news, however, is relative, which is why earnings beats for the likes of Tesla, IBM, and Honeywell, for instance, haven’t necessarily been followed with good responses.

There are other variables, like Tesla saying it expects to see a significant increase in capex spending, IBM holding the line on its guidance rather than raising it, and Honeywell issuing a warning for its second-quarter outlook, that can get in the way, certainly after a big run.

This market has had a huge run. Today, it may just need to catch its breath.

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Originally Posted April 23, 2026 – Running to and from market-moving excuses