Hurricane Polo threatens Mexico and future Tropical Storm Nolo threatens Hawaii

The ForecastEx prediction market prices a major hurricane landfall in Mexico at 24% and in Hawaii at 13% as of the morning of 9/23/2026.

Image from squall.cloud

Hurricane Polo, south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico, in the eastern Pacific, intensified extremely rapidly from a tropical depression on Sunday to a Category 5 hurricane on Tuesday, with peak winds of 180 mph. It is now a Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds. 

Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, 400 miles south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, currently has only 35 mph winds but is forecast to become a hurricane within two days and to approach the Big Island near major hurricane strength around Saturday. The system will be named Nolo once it reaches tropical storm strength which is forecast to occur later today. 

Both storms are relevant to ForecastEx’s Major Hurricane Landfall contracts, whose question for each region reads “Will a major (Category 3+) hurricane make landfall in [Mexico or Hawaii] in 2026?”

A Yes pays if the eye crosses land in the region, or land within 50 miles of its border, while the storm is Category 3 or stronger. The hurricane page includes live prices, National Hurricane Center tracks, cones, and wind probabilities for every listed region.

From the live hurricane page.

Polo and Mexico

The National Hurricane Center’s forecast keeps Polo’s core offshore until at least Monday, at which point it is expected to have 104 mph winds (Category 2) and be about 200 miles west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas. 

From the live hurricane page.

The relevant question for the ForecastEx hurricane landfall contract is what happens after that. According to the Google DeepMind ensemble initialized at 00Z Wednesday, most members turn northeast and make landfall on the Baja California peninsula with a strength right around the border between Category 2 and Category 3 (major), which is 96 knots. 

ForecastEx had the major hurricane landfall contract for Mexico at 24% on Wednesday morning (Yes bid 21¢, No bid 73¢). 

From Weathernerds.

Future Tropical Storm Nolo and Hawaii

Another very interesting area to watch is the depression 15E currently southeast of Hawaii. 

The official forecast turns the depression sharply north on Thursday, bringing it near the Big Island of Hawaii late Friday or Saturday as Hurricane Nolo. 

The forecast intensity is again near the border of Category 2 and Category 3, but the path is highly uncertain, so outright landfall remains a relatively small probability. The National Hurricane Center has the highest risk of hurricane-force (Category 1+) winds at South Point, Hawaii. That is 23%, but it could occur without landfall. 

From the live hurricane page.

From the live hurricane page.

In the DeepMind ensemble, the storm is stronger than the official forecast but largely remains south of Hawaii. By Monday, about 6 of the 50 ensemble members have the center passing across the Big Island, right near the border of Category 3 strength. 

ForecastEx had the major hurricane landfall contracts for Hawaii at 13% on Wednesday morning (Yes bid 10¢, No bid 84¢). 

From Weathernerds.

Prediction markets on weather and climate outcomes can improve forecast accuracy and provide a way to hedge against negative outcomes. 

Further Reading on the Risk Hedging and Risk Transfer Applications of Hurricane Forecast Contracts

–Hurricane Forecast Contracts — how the count and landfall contracts work.

–Disaster Insurance Applications of Forecast Contracts — using landfall contracts as parametric cover.

–Hurricane Forecast Contracts as a Diversifying Asset in an Investment Portfolio — correlation properties against conventional assets.