Asset Classes

Free investment financial education

Language

Multilingual content from IBKR

Close Navigation
Learn more about IBKR accounts

High Points for Economic Data Scheduled for July 17 Week

Posted July 17, 2023 at 11:00 am
Theresa Sheehan
Econoday Inc.

The data stars are aligning in a way likely perhaps to keep the FOMC from raising interest rates at the upcoming July 25-26 meeting. The most recent inflation numbers for June show further progress in bringing inflation down, even the pesky persistence in core inflation. The labor market is cooling enough to improve the imbalance in labor supply without eliminating demand for workers. Inflation expectations are overall well-anchored, if at levels a bit above where they were before the current episode began in 2021.

The economic data scheduled for release in the July 17 week should not change that outlook absent something well outside market expectations.

The big report for the week should be the June data on retail and food services sales at 8:30 ET on Tuesday. The uptick in motor vehicle sales in June should help keep the dollar value of all sales higher. Prices per gallon of gasoline were a bit lower in June, but summer travel probably offset that in volume of sales. Retailers may have tried to get a jump on sales before the July 4th holiday, but it is more likely that sales were driven by extreme hot weather in may parts of the US. Consumers would have been shopping for hot weather clothing, and fans and air conditioners. The heat may have sent more consumers inside where they would patronize entertainment venues, and eating and drinking places. The weather could also have encouraged some activity associated with building materials and gardening. But it is also possible that consumers, wanting to keep cool, opted to shop online to avoid leaving the house.

If the June retail numbers are at least decent, it will help round out expectations for personal consumption expenditures in the second quarter 2023, and put the outlook for GDP growth in the second quarter on a more solid positive footing.

There are several reports related to the housing market in the week, but most of these reflect data compiled before the recent uptick in mortgage interest rates that put the 30-year fixed rate back around 7 percent. In the fall of 2022 that caused possible homeowners to exit the market. However, in the present market, homebuyers may be resigned to higher rates believing historic lows are in the rear view with little prospect of any return below 6 percent in the near future. Homebuyers may be resorting to adjustable rate mortgages to keep payments down now in the hope of refinancing at a lower rate before the reset in a few years’ time.

The NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index for July at 10:00 ET on Tuesday may catch the leading edge of this. The index rose 5 points to 55 in June and was the highest since 55 in July 2022. The rise in rates since April may check the upward momentum. There will still be demand for new homes with limited supplies of existing units, and some buyers may have prequalified while rates were lower but not yet purchased but will do so before the rate lock expires.

sales of passenger cars and light trucks
price of regular gasoline
NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index vs. Mortgage Interest Rates

Originally Posted July 14, 2023 – High points for economic data scheduled for July 17 week

Join The Conversation

If you have a general question, it may already be covered in our FAQs. If you have an account-specific question or concern, please reach out to Client Services.

Leave a Reply

Disclosure: Econoday Inc.

Important Legal Notice: Econoday has attempted to verify the information contained in this calendar. However, any aspect of such info may change without notice. Econoday does not provide investment advice, and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time.

© 1998-2022 Econoday, Inc. All Rights Reserved

Disclosure: Interactive Brokers

Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Econoday Inc. and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Econoday Inc. and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

IBKR Campus Newsletters

This website uses cookies to collect usage information in order to offer a better browsing experience. By browsing this site or by clicking on the "ACCEPT COOKIES" button you accept our Cookie Policy.