Today’s preliminary print of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (UMich) points to the increased chances that the “No” answers for IBKR ForecastTrader Contracts asking if the final benchmark will exceed 62 and 66 on March 28, priced at only $0.32 and $0.74, will be correct. If that turns out to be the case, the Contracts would pay $1. Additionally, today’s print points to the “No” answer for the Contract asking if the index will exceed 70.3, priced at $0.89, also being likely to be a winner. Folks, the chances of these answers being correct are underscored by final UMich results generally deviating little from the preliminary findings.
Source: ForecastEx
The initial UMich results for March dropped from 64.7 in February to 57.9, much worse than the consensus expectation of 63.1. Consumers’ view of current economic conditions fell from 65.7 to 63.5 during the period compared to the consensus expectation of 65.0 while consumer expectations weakened from 64.0 to 54.2, significantly below the estimate of 64.3.
It was the third-consecutive decline in overall sentiment and the weakness occurred across ages, education levels, income, wealth, political affiliations and geographic regions. For today’s results, fear about price pressures was the largest culprit. For the next 12 months, survey respondents believe inflation will hit 4.9%, up from 4.3% in February. The 4.9% rate is the highest level since November of 2022. Over the longer term, or 5 years out, shoppers expect costs to increase 3.9% compared to 3.5% last month. It was the tallest month-over-month jump since 1993.
To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders’ Academy video here
Disclosure: Interactive Brokers Affiliate
Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Disclosure: Forecast Contracts
Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.
Disclosure: ForecastEx
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx forecast contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
Disclosure: ForecastEx Market Sentiment
Displayed outcome information is based on current market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC. Current market sentiment for contracts may be viewed at ForecastEx at https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php. Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
Disclosure: CFTC Regulation 1.71
This is commentary on economic, political and/or market conditions within the meaning of CFTC Regulation 1.71, and is not meant provide sufficient information upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction.
Join The Conversation
For specific platform feedback and suggestions, please submit it directly to our team using these instructions.
If you have an account-specific question or concern, please reach out to Client Services.
We encourage you to look through our FAQs before posting. Your question may already be covered!