Ceasefire between U.S. and Iran is over (at the moment)

Briefing.com Summary:

*President Trump said the ceasefire with Iran is over, as far as he is concerned.

*Oil prices and Treasury yields have risen, causing some upset for stocks.

*The FOMC Minutes for the June 16-17 meeting will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET.

Remember the framework for an agreement for a memorandum of understanding for a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran? Well, it is over, as far as President Trump is concerned. That was the affirmation from the president at the NATO conference, and it has struck a chord in the oil market and bond market that has upset the stock market.

Currently, the S&P 500 futures are down 38 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 206 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 408 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value.

Those indications are actually improved from earlier, so it is possible that market participants are sensing that the president’s contentious remarks, which also included calling Iran’s leadership a “bunch of liars, bunch of scum, bunch of cheats, sick people, violent people, and evil people,” could be a negotiating ploy.

Whatever the case may be, we would contend that the level of losses in the equity futures market is disproportionate to the gravity of the headlines pertaining to the end of the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.

There may be a belief, too, that this latest breakup is just more of the same approach of escalating things verbally in order to de-escalate things militarily so that the two sides can get back together, oil futures can settle lower, and interest rates can calm down.

Where things stand now is that WTI crude futures are up 4.6% to $73.67/bbl, and the 10-yr note yield is up four basis points to 4.57% ahead of the $39 billion 10-yr note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET.

There is a current of inflation concern flowing through the tape this morning, and it is indicative of how macro factors are dwarfing micro factors, like Apple’s (AAPL) $30 billion chip deal with Broadcom (AVGO), as an early market mover.

The FOMC Minutes for the June 16-17 meeting should provide some afternoon movement when they are released at 2:00 p.m. ET, if for no other reason than that market participants are unclear about what they might convey, with Fed Chair Warsh having chaired his first meeting then and going out of his way to kill the practice of providing forward guidance.

That uncertainty is a volatility factor in and of itself, and the degree to which it is triggered will depend on what shows up in the minutes. Accordingly, market participants are in a defensive wait-and-see mode with respect to the minutes, along with the Iran situation, the direction of Treasury yields, and the behavior of the semiconductor stocks.

—

Originally Posted July 8, 2026 – Ceasefire between U.S. and Iran is over (at the moment)