Bull market foundation feeling the shakes

Briefing.com Summary:

*The stock market is trying to rebound from yesterday’s large losses.

*Oil prices have dropped despite worsening hostilities in the Iran war.

*Earnings news is taking a backseat to macro matters.

The equity futures market is trying to make a go of it this morning following yesterday’s large losses that were led by the mega-cap stocks. Those losses were precipitated by the nervous reaction to Alphabet’s (GOOG/GOOGL) spending plans, spiking oil prices, and rising bond yields.

None of those factors are present this morning. In some respects, that is surprising. In one respect—the buy-the-dip playbook—it is not.

Currently, the S&P 500 futures are up six points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 30 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 125 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value.

This is not a robust response given the scope of yesterday’s losses, but it is something to build on for a market that had its foundation shaken yesterday.

The pre-open disposition looks to be leaning on the twin pillars of sliding oil prices and lower Treasury yields, with the latter reactive to the former. WTI crude futures are down 3.2% to $89.29/bbl in a surprising move considering the geopolitical headlines worsened overnight. The 10-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.68%.

Iran rejected a ceasefire proposal put forth by Iraq’s prime minister, according to The New York Times; Iran labeled the UK an “accomplice” to the U.S. war effort, according to CNBC; and President Trump is said to be skeptical of diplomacy with Iran and is in “revenge mode,” according to The Wall Street Journal.

President Trump then added on Truth Social that any damage done to ships, cargo, or anything related thereto will be paid for by the Iranian money the U.S. has in its possession.

Escalate to de-escalate? That is the tagline the market reportedly keeps embracing as a basis to look past these hostilities, but perhaps yesterday was a warning shot by the market, not to Iran but to President Trump, that the brinkmanship is risking the market’s resolve and larger economic consequences conveyed through regressive energy costs and higher interest rates.

Inflation concerns are heating up, along with rate hike concerns. That is the message emanating from the bond market and the fed funds futures market, which are also contending with the news that the U.S. is imposing Section 301 tariffs of 10.0% to 12.5% on most of its trading partners to replace the IEEPA tariffs invalidated by the Supreme Court. On the bright side (relatively speaking), most of these tariff rates are lower than the IEEFA tariffs the Supreme Court struck down.

In brief, the market would like to concentrate on earnings news, but it has some major macro distractions standing in the way.

American Express (AXP), Intel (INTC), Verizon (VZ), and Tenet Healthcare (THC) are among the luminaries that reported since yesterday’s close. They all topped consensus earnings expectations, but only Intel and Tenet Healthcare are higher in pre-market trading.

It is a mixed response that is befitting for a market that is mixed up with macro matters that are pushing up interest rates that are rattling the bull market’s foundation.

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Originally Posted July 24, 2026 – Bull market foundation feeling the shakes