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Posted September 15, 2026 at 1:06 pm
The Fed is anticipated to hike its key interest rate tomorrow for the first time in over three years, as the Middle East conflict has lifted inflation far above the central bank’s 2% target. Investors were on the fence about an increase earlier this month, but a blockbuster nonfarm payrolls print and a stronger-than-projected Producer Price Index topped off with a hotter-than-expected Core Consumer Price Index meaningfully strengthened the case for a lift. Indeed, buoyant hiring and elevated cost forces are forcing the monetary policy institution’s hand here, a few short weeks after reporters were asking in the post-decision July presser what the committee was waiting for to heighten its benchmark yield. Probabilities did take a dramatic turn since late August, when odds of a raise stood at just 30% prior to the trio of fiery publications that have the chance at 87% this morning within the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Retail sales are expected to recover from their steepest decline in over one year in July. Indeed, the -0.6% month-over-month contraction reported in the previous print is projected to reverse to a 0.8% gain in August’s update, according to the monthly Reuters poll of 53 forecasters. But the distribution of anticipated outcomes is particularly wide for tomorrow’s release, with the minimum and maximum projections at 0.2% and 1.1%. The broad range can be explained by the fact that this indicator has an elevated deviation rate, as its historical tendencies signal that it has an outsized potential to vary from the consensus more often and in a sharper manner than the average gauge. The Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets, meanwhile, price the “Yeses” with thresholds of -0.5%, 0% and 0.5% at $0.91, $0.83 and $0.57.
Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of September 15, 2026.
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Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC, as well as other CFTC-registered DCMs, including Kalshi and CME. For more information, see ibkr.com/realfex Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
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Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx Forecast Contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
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