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Posted January 15, 2026 at 10:45 am
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have been trending higher after bottoming near 3.95% in October, recently reaching just under 4.20%. In this video, we break down the key forces driving that move and what it could mean for bond investors and broader markets. We explore how expectations for stronger economic growth in 2025—driven by potential tax cuts and deregulation—may be reducing demand for safe-haven Treasuries. We also discuss concerns around continued government spending, large fiscal deficits, and the increased supply of bonds needed to finance them. Inflation remains a central theme. While the latest CPI report showed inflation holding at 2.7% year over year with a softer month-over-month reading, it’s still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. That creates uncertainty around real returns for long-term bondholders. Finally, we touch on speculation around a possible new, more dovish Fed chair and what that could mean for future yield levels and potential Fed intervention. This discussion is designed for retail traders and investors looking to better understand interest rates, bonds‌ and macroeconomic drivers—no trading recommendations included. Insights by Jim Iuorio.
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Originally Posted January 13, 2026
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